tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-47734324878890057722024-02-18T22:25:28.438-05:00Nerd to the CoreAlexhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07097034277883199120noreply@blogger.comBlogger468125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4773432487889005772.post-42289501932323042322022-06-24T11:58:00.003-04:002022-06-24T13:53:30.431-04:00I'm Not Going to Give Up<p>I'm not going to give up because I can't. </p><p>It's not because I'm stubborn, which I am to an alarming degree. Even when something won't work that doesn't mean I'm not going to do my best to crack the system to try, even to my own detriment.<br /></p><p>It's not because I'm not scared, because I am terrified. Being part of multiple marginalized groups will do that to you given the not-so-distant history of the world.</p><p>It's not because I believe the people I vote for are going to help because come on - they're feckless. I'm still going to vote because it's one thing I can do (for now) and hope that the new generation of the party has the gumption to get shit done.</p><p>I'm not giving up because there's still a future. And it sucks and it's scary and I don't have the words for how absolutely terrified I am to be raising a child in a country that does not value life.</p><p>But I do. I value his life and the life of my family, and the life of my friends and honestly just life full stop. And if I give up now...if I just throw up my hands and say - at 38 - that there's nothing I can do...am I really valuing life beyond my own?</p><p>I'm not going to give up because I can't and because even if it doesn't happen while I'm alive, I know this is not the end.<br /></p>Alexhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07097034277883199120noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4773432487889005772.post-29848047475972003172020-01-21T09:04:00.003-05:002020-01-21T09:04:23.810-05:00Checking In<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Hi everyone,</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">I've moved my <i>Magic</i> writing over to <a href="https://nerdtothecore.com/">nerdtothecore.com</a>. Check it out there! </span>Alexhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07097034277883199120noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4773432487889005772.post-88072204769212337732019-11-26T09:51:00.000-05:002019-11-26T09:51:04.835-05:00November 24th Pauper Challenge Breakdown<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">The <a href="https://magic.wizards.com/en/articles/archive/mtgo-standings/pauper-challenge-2019-11-25">November 24th Pauper Challenge</a> looked rather different than the three prior events. There was only one Flicker Tron deck in the Top 8 and the archetype was not in the winner's circle. Instead it was one of two Stompy decks in the Top 32 - both in the Top 8 - that edged out a version of Boros Monarch that appears to have been built to beat the mirror. </span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">These results should be heartening. Tron was held in check by an abundance of strategies that are strong against the deck. Stompy, Elves, and Burn are all decks that attack Tron from slightly different angles. The second most popular deck - Izzet Faeries - has also adjusted and now has it's own end game lock in Deprive and Mystic Sanctuary. While not a slam dunk against Tron, access to true counters can help disrupt the loop that would otherwise lock a player out of a game. </span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">And here is the part where I say that the results of the Challenge are not totally reflective of the wider Pauper metagame. Shortly after I tweeted out the image to the left I got a reply:</span></div>
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Top Tron players refused to play it because its boring</div>
— PR0boszcz (@PR0boszczMTG) <a href="https://twitter.com/PR0boszczMTG/status/1199033146223796225?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">November 25, 2019</a></blockquote>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">There are a few ways to look at the claim. No one can deny the fact that some well known Tron pilots stayed out of the Challenge. If you have been hanging out in <a href="https://discord.gg/TpSSfXr">Discord I manage</a> you will have no doubt seen Hellsau, and to a lesser extent, Birbman bemoaning how good the deck is - with Hellsau feeling locked into play the strategy in the Format Championship even though they hate it. </span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">But to quote a musical that is culturally relevant, you had to be in the room where it happened. </span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">More on this in a bit.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Because these players did not play there is no way to know if they would have won in this field. It is possible that they would have won and it is also possible they would have lost. But the tweet above unintentionally questions the veracity of the results. <i>This tournament doesn't count because Tron wasn't played.</i></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">What is true? Has Tron taken a hit or is it just a blip on the radar and the prison deck is going to come back in force before the December 16th Banned and Restricted announcement?</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">I'm not sure it matters. What does is that these discussions about Pauper need to come out of the shadows. While all social platforms are opt-in, Twitter at least puts the discourse in front of folks who make <i>Magic</i>. So if you have opinions on Pauper let people know using the <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/MTGPauper?src=hashtag_click&f=live">#mtgpauper hashtag</a>. </span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Because shouting into the void of a Discord with people who agree with you doesn't affect change. It just makes you look like you're shouting. </span></div>
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<i style="font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif;">Pauper continues to grow in popularity and I want to continue to be at the forefront of the metagame. If you like the work I do, please consider becoming a <a href="https://www.patreon.com/nerdtothecore">Patron</a>. Thank you!</i></div>
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Alexhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07097034277883199120noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4773432487889005772.post-4556969737261570582019-11-18T13:21:00.001-05:002019-11-18T13:21:28.369-05:00November 17th Pauper Challenge Breakdown<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">There are two main takeaways from the <a href="https://magic.wizards.com/en/articles/archive/mtgo-standings/pauper-challenge-2019-11-18">November 17th Pauper Challenge</a>. The first is that Tron currently holds Tier 0 status in the metagame. Winning the event and taking three of the Top 4 slots, it is clear that locking your opponents out of combat phases is a Good Thing at the moment. </span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">That is the headline for sure. Going into a Challenge without being prepared to take on both Moment's Peace and Stonehorn Dignitary is a recipe for failure. There are many ways to try and get around these cards - from Skewer the Critics to Shepherd of Rot - but one rising strategy seems to be running good old Counterspell. Delver made a Top 8 this week and was backed up by two different stripes of Faeries decks - Dimir and Izzet. The ability to apply pressure while saying no to key spells can buy enough time to beat Tron before they can fully assemble their prison lock.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">But I want to talk about another way to use creatures here. I want to talk about Slivers. Back when <i>Modern Horizons</i> was fully revealed, Pauper players (<a href="https://www.channelfireball.com/articles/the-best-pauper-cards-from-modern-horizons-part-1/">including yours truly</a>) recognized that Bladeback Sliver could provide Sliver decks with the reach needed to close out games. The new addition to the deck provided a way for Slivers to win in a board stall and through effects that obfuscated combat.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Frucile - who has put a lot of effort into Slivers in years past - put this change into practice. They made Top 8 while a similar list made it into the Top 16. Gemhide Sliver allows Slivers to explode on to the board a la Elves and Bladeblack Sliver means that board stalls do not matter (outside of the mirror). Slivers has always been a powerful tribe thanks to its three traditional lords. The result is a deck that can fairly quickly blank toughness based removal while also applying a ton of pressure and thanks to Virulent Sliver, a way to win through Weather the Storm.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">The addition of Hunter Sliver in these decks is fantastic. It can help push through key creatures while also acting as a form of removal for smaller bodies (or bodies made smaller by Sidewinder Sliver). Considering that recent decline of Stompy in the past two Challenges, I think it is safe to say that Slivers is coming for the title of premier beatdown deck. An interesting, if not welcome, change.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">The next Banned and Restricted update comes in four weeks. Until then we have a good idea of what the metagame is going to look like. With that being the case, how are you going to approach Pauper?</span></div>
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<i style="font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif;">Pauper continues to grow in popularity and I want to continue to be at the forefront of the metagame. If you like the work I do, please consider becoming a <a href="https://www.patreon.com/nerdtothecore">Patron</a>. Thank you!</i></div>
Alexhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07097034277883199120noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4773432487889005772.post-5206377881383119632019-11-12T15:44:00.004-05:002019-11-12T15:44:57.802-05:00November 10th Pauper Challenge Breakdown<span style="font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; text-align: justify;">There were 10 varieties of Flicker Tron decks in the Top 32 of the <a href="https://magic.wizards.com/en/articles/archive/mtgo-standings/pauper-challenge-2019-11-11">November 10th Pauper Challenge</a>. Tron had two decks in the Top 8 and won the event. The recent performance of the deck has been the source some concerns expressed over the archetype's dominance as of late. </span><br />
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<span style="font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; text-align: justify;">But is this warranted?</span><br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj-OsGdJXWrfGVZsPSTP3Wfu9-et5J5P5DmArmU2GwbbVdLflvzpdHzljNSzBEv53oU2DDwxF5VZq_0_fEtDQD-EBpsmI-F8rIApmVfjECOLn6muSf5w_nTBSPmH43a-mAJzWcEWZJ3Qb4/s1600/Screen+Shot+2019-11-12+at+2.42.49+PM.png" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em; text-align: justify;"><img border="0" data-original-height="676" data-original-width="552" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj-OsGdJXWrfGVZsPSTP3Wfu9-et5J5P5DmArmU2GwbbVdLflvzpdHzljNSzBEv53oU2DDwxF5VZq_0_fEtDQD-EBpsmI-F8rIApmVfjECOLn6muSf5w_nTBSPmH43a-mAJzWcEWZJ3Qb4/s320/Screen+Shot+2019-11-12+at+2.42.49+PM.png" width="261" /></a></div>
<span style="font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; text-align: justify;">I am not so sure. Taking a look at the chart that breaks down the Top 32, Burn performed on par with Tron. The most remarkable thing about the Top 32 may not be the number of Tron decks but the absolute dearth of Stompy - and aggro in general. While Boros Bully might be an aggressive deck, it is not beatdown in the sense of Heroic or Slivers (in the case of Sunday). Rather there exists a full spectrum of strategies under the Tron umbrella while everything else is trying to find a lane.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; text-align: justify;">This is perhaps the best argument against keeping Tron around. Tron is a powerful enough mana engine that once it is online it simply gets to do more than a deck with a non-Tron mana base. Thanks to cards like Expedition Map and the advent of the London Mulligan, Tron's fail rate has declined. As such it has a greater chance of being able to leverage its mana advantage earlier and more often. The result is that decks that are not Tron get squeezed out by similar Tron-based strategies. </span><span style="font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; text-align: justify;"><i>Why play a control deck without Tron when you can play one with the engine and never want for mana again?</i></span><br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiqRLgHKrxsGuxD2e0c1xr0j3rOi4CnbOdVqBgBSlyGY2bRQtDPexthqJ0_vXtOFlnvTfdteS8riuwbROtUzVq03NMFLnWpRCas-eS-cJsNmpSLynzjX6t6vf7Qr4veX_wXMpYOCWD7YDQ/s1600/Screen+Shot+2019-11-12+at+2.56.06+PM.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="782" data-original-width="1270" height="246" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiqRLgHKrxsGuxD2e0c1xr0j3rOi4CnbOdVqBgBSlyGY2bRQtDPexthqJ0_vXtOFlnvTfdteS8riuwbROtUzVq03NMFLnWpRCas-eS-cJsNmpSLynzjX6t6vf7Qr4veX_wXMpYOCWD7YDQ/s400/Screen+Shot+2019-11-12+at+2.56.06+PM.png" width="400" /></a></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">The popularity of Tron would be more worrisome if it had more success on <i>Magic Online. </i>Through three Challenges and a PTQ, Flicker based Tron decks are make up 17.19% of the Challenge Metagame while accounting for 20.48% of the Weighted Meta - that is weight of wins at a X-2 record or better. That's a pretty good clip but considering its popularity, the deck would have to be performing better to register as a problem on the radar of someone caring exclusively about numbers. </span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">By comparison, at the end of the <i>Core 2020</i> season Jeskai midrange was 25% of all Top 32 lists and accounted for over 33% of the Weighted Metagame.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">So Tron isn't as dominant as previous "best decks" but I don't think that tells the whole story. </span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Tron can be miserable to play against. A non-Tron deck can establish its gameplan according to the most well written script and it simply may not matter. If Tron is able to come online it stops acting as a control deck and instead plays prison, locking the opponent out of meaningful actions. But the war is not entirely lost and so there exists a compulsion to play to the bitter end of things. </span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">It comes down to this: Tron is not a dominant deck as we have come to know them in Pauper, but the toll it takes on the psyche during a game is quite high. That is not to take anything away from people who enjoy playing the archetype, but I have heard from multiple people who win with the deck that they actively hate it and only play it because they feel there is no other choice.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">That's not good.</span></div>
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<i style="font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; text-align: justify;">Pauper continues to grow in popularity and I want to continue to be at the forefront of the metagame. If you like the work I do, please consider becoming a <a href="https://www.patreon.com/nerdtothecore">Patron</a>. Thank you!</i>Alexhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07097034277883199120noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4773432487889005772.post-21650985956893700032019-11-04T13:25:00.000-05:002019-11-04T13:25:03.802-05:00November 3rd Challenge Breakdown<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">On November 3rd there were 6 Tron decks in the <a href="https://magic.wizards.com/en/articles/archive/mtgo-standings/pauper-challenge-2019-11-04">Pauper Challenge</a> and four of them made Top 8. It was half the Top 4 and won the Challenge. The winning player went 7-0 in the Swiss and then clearly went 3-0 in the Top 8. That's impressive. </span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">If you have followed me for any length of time you probably know I am not fan of the current iteration of Tron decks in Pauper. While the prospect of looping Dinrova Horror or Stonehorn Dignitary sounds cool, playing against it <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q7SLdRDOfHA">time after time</a> can get tiresome - especially if you like attacking. Tron, in Pauper, is a prison deck that masquerades as a value build. </span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">But is it a problem?</span></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj3JyHdCWICTYgjtkoW7NJDSseHcstF51HzNOA5J408c-PpDFPIJk9a92EmK3sgdG_XSkhWQKpUv65GQf35hdaNElngsqnMKBHEe_LiPw6DISvGoq1oDcoFy7CECdqC0G3hR1ZmWRBkOPg/s1600/Screen+Shot+2019-11-04+at+12.31.19+PM.png" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj3JyHdCWICTYgjtkoW7NJDSseHcstF51HzNOA5J408c-PpDFPIJk9a92EmK3sgdG_XSkhWQKpUv65GQf35hdaNElngsqnMKBHEe_LiPw6DISvGoq1oDcoFy7CECdqC0G3hR1ZmWRBkOPg/s320/Screen+Shot+2019-11-04+at+12.31.19+PM.png" width="298" /></a><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">I am not convinced. </span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Shocking, I know.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Look at the results of the Challenge. Out of all the decks you can argue that one of them is a traditionally bad matchup for Tron - Elves. While you can make the case for Affinity, Burn, and possible the Dimir Exhume deck, each of them have some problems, including a vulnerability to either Hydroblast or Pyroblast and their <i>Alpha</i> kin. </span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">But every deck here attempts to attack the game on an axis that Tron excels at stopping. If some of these Stompy decks had instead been Red Deck Wins, it is possible a few Tron decks would have fallen. If the Izzet Faeries deck instead opted for an aggressive Delver of Secrets build, it's possible that one of these decks would have taken a hit. Four decks in a Top 8 is scary but only if it is consistent. And while this singular challenge may not be a harbinger of something worse, when we take a look at the three tournaments since Arcum's Astrolabe was banned we see something that should give pause.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">This chart takes a look at the popularity of a given archetype (here Flicker Tron and Dinrova Tron are grouped) and compares its volume to the weight of its wins at X-2 or better. Through three events, Tron is crushing the field (although not as bad as some previous offenders). So the question then becomes what can be done? I would be looking at Bogles as a potential foil to Tron, while also investigating the prospect of <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ntIVfOdJ70E">Zombies</a> as Shepherd of Rot can do some work in pressuring Tron without having to attack. </span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">But that's my two cents - what are yours?</span></div>
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<i style="font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif;">Pauper continues to grow in popularity and I want to continue to be at the forefront of the metagame. If you like the work I do, please consider becoming a <a href="https://www.patreon.com/nerdtothecore">Patron</a>. Thank you!</i></div>
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Alexhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07097034277883199120noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4773432487889005772.post-47377170442768352802019-10-31T13:58:00.000-04:002019-10-31T13:58:38.559-04:00October 26 and October 27 Weekend Recap<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">First, I want to apologize for the delay in this post. I was out doing coverage of Grand Prix Phoenix this past weekend and let me tell you: two cross country flights in the span of 84 hours is not good for getting back on a schedule.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">Regardless, there were two major Pauper tournaments this weekend - an <a href="https://magic.wizards.com/en/articles/archive/mtgo-standings/pauper-ptq-2019-10-27">8 Round PTQ</a> and a <a href="https://magic.wizards.com/en/articles/archive/mtgo-standings/pauper-challenge-2019-10-28">7 Round Challenge</a>. The results were not surprising but there was something that stood out immediately to me upon viewing the decks that performed well.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif;">When you look at the PTQ results, they conform to what many believed the format would look like in the wake of banning Arcum's Astrolabe. Stompy and Boros Monarch were two of the best performing decks on the day, with Monarch taking the Blue Envelope - while other former format staples put up respectable numbe</span><span style="font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif;">rs. These were top decks that lost the least after the ban.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif;">At the same time some fringe strategies showed up in the shape of Dimir Teachings and Mono Black Aristocrats. It is heartening to see fringe strategies perform well in the PTQ as this event attracted a larger player base and one not as well versed in the nuances of Pauper. If these decks perform well under these circumstances then they may have merit as legitimate strategies. As always, however, there needs to be more than one result to identify a trend. And in the case of Teachings, a slightly different (read: 80 card) build made it back to the elimination rounds on Sunday.</span><br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjduy9Ngw6nUElQ0PlTDMQbZU9LSCayQsW7o_C4hgULkFpc3vqdtL5q7MsgnJlIYcb-1c3iksrNgckEvqBl04vGFPFrd3nKy8Z1LjMNggjnI2FdhlbJpd6ZYC8jVbufBEXqJuFpKJR4YWg/s1600/Screen+Shot+2019-10-31+at+1.23.03+PM.png" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="552" data-original-width="556" height="317" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjduy9Ngw6nUElQ0PlTDMQbZU9LSCayQsW7o_C4hgULkFpc3vqdtL5q7MsgnJlIYcb-1c3iksrNgckEvqBl04vGFPFrd3nKy8Z1LjMNggjnI2FdhlbJpd6ZYC8jVbufBEXqJuFpKJR4YWg/s320/Screen+Shot+2019-10-31+at+1.23.03+PM.png" width="320" /></a></div>
<span style="font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif;">The Challenge results sit in stark contrast to those presented above. Setting aside the fact that the PTQ was more than twice the size of the Challenge, no deck in the Top 32 took home more than four slots. In the Challenge, Boros Bully and Boros Monarch each put seven players into the Top 32. There was less overall diversity of archetypes but that in it of itself is not a bad thing. In fact, nothing about the Challenge results are inherently "bad".</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif;">Yet I couldn't shake a funny feeling about them during my flight home.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif;">And I think this is why. Boros Monarch and Stompy were the best performing decks on Saturday. If the metagame had reacted rationally I would have expected to see an increase in Tron (true) and an increase in decks that prey on Tron (also true). At the same time, the sheer volume of Boros laid in stark contrast to the diversity of the PTQ. </span><br />
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<span style="font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif;">And I think it may have something to do with the population of players. The PTQ attracts both Pauper stalwarts and people trying to qualify. Compare that the the Challenge, which is made up almost exclusively are hardcore Pauper regulars. With such a closed metagame in mind it can become easier to game the system and attempt to predict what the known quantities will be running. The metagame is not as varied as as such packing specific cards becomes more attractive.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif;">In turn this can explain the allure of Boros. Red and white have access to some of the best sideboard cards in Pauper - Red Elemental Blast/Pyroblast, Gorilla Shaman, Prismatic Strands, Standard Bearer - and having access to these cards, especially in a relatively closed system, can give you a sizable advantage over the rest of the field. Of course this can create a feedback loop where if this is known, then it actually could be beneficially to not run in lockstep with the loop.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif;">On Sunday that did not take place. In a single event, players were attracted to the powerful options provided by Wind-Scarred Crag. As the metagame moves further away from Jeskai it will be interesting to see if people will look for the exploits in the system or continue to trod the same paths again and again.</span><br />
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<i style="font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif;">Pauper continues to grow in popularity and I want to continue to be at the forefront of the metagame. If you like the work I do, please consider becoming a <a href="https://www.patreon.com/nerdtothecore">Patron</a>. Thank you!</i></div>
Alexhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07097034277883199120noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4773432487889005772.post-9191275401959452552019-10-23T10:10:00.001-04:002019-10-23T10:11:09.121-04:00October 20th Format Playoff Breakdown<div style="text-align: left;">
<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif; text-align: justify;">So there was a <a href="https://magic.wizards.com/en/articles/archive/mtgo-standings/pauper-format-playoff-2019-10-21">Pauper Playoff on October 20th</a> and the story of the Top 16 was a familiar tale. Jeskai Midrange decks dominated the Top 16 but didn't punch through for the win. Stompy put up a strong showing but was held in check by the correct metagame choice of the weekend - Boros Monarch. </span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif; text-align: justify;">But all of this is a moot point. The format has fundamentally changed after the Arcum's Astrolabe ban. While I don't expect the metagame to change too much from a macro point of view (outside of Jeskai tanking) there are going to be some shifts.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif; text-align: justify;">First and foremost, Jeskai, as we have come to know it, is dead in a ditch. The cards are all still powerful and a shell using similar cards could easily exist. The problem with the builds moving forward is the mana. Astrolabe represented a way to get every color for a single mana. While Prophetic Prism still exists it is twice as expensive in a deck that ran 19 or 20 lands. That is a huge ask, especially considering how often the deck relied on a combination of Astrolabe and Preordain to set up its early turns. That is a lot harder to do when your Astrolabe costs two. Mulldrifter and Ephemerate is still a powerful combo, as is the Archaeomancer loop, but my guess is it becomes significantly harder to splash a third color, forcing Azorius Blink decks to slow down a bit and look for other ways to control the board. </span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif; text-align: justify;">Out side of that, the format remains largely unchanged. Yes, the absence of Arcum's Astrolabe means that three color good stuff will take a hit, but look at the rest of the Top 16. You can reasonable expect those decks to remain part of the the competitive sphere. </span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">I've said Tron is likely to lose a step but still remain a highly played deck. I stand by this statement. Tron isn't going anywhere but the loss of Astrolabe is going to hurt its early game consistency. At the same point it may end up being a benefit as the deck can return to relying on lands to fix its mana rather than an artifact. </span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">What cards from <i>Modern Horizons, Core 2020, </i>and <i>Throne of Eldraine </i>now have a chance to take off in the wake of Astrolabe's axe? Sound off below.</span></div>
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<i style="font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; text-align: justify;">Pauper continues to grow in popularity and I want to continue to be at the forefront of the metagame. If you like the work I do, please consider becoming a <a href="https://www.patreon.com/nerdtothecore">Patron</a>. Thank you!</i>Alexhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07097034277883199120noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4773432487889005772.post-46110626019836344862019-10-15T14:17:00.000-04:002019-10-15T14:17:00.006-04:00October 13th Pauper Challenge Breakdown<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">The <a href="https://magic.wizards.com/en/articles/archive/mtgo-standings/pauper-challenge-2019-10-14">October 13th Pauper Challenge</a> brought us everything we have come to expect from the format. Jeskai was the most popular deck and performed better that the field. Arcum's Astrolabe was everywhere in the Top 8 with 24 out of 32 possible copies being played. Unlike other Challenges from last season, Jeskai came out on top- for the second time since <i>Throne of Eldraine</i> was released.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">There is more to the Top 8, of course. Two aggressive Boros decks both made it to the elimination rounds, as did Affinity and Boros Monarch. Three of these decks ran Galvanic Blast while one ran Rally the Peasants as a force multiplier. This tracks with what people have been saying about the Pauper metagame for weeks now - if you aren't playing Ephemerate decks you have to be positioned to race them.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Looking at the remained for the Top 32, only three decks don't cleanly fall into this cap - the two Orzhov Monarch and the Skyfisher Tron. Even the Blue Zoo deck maxed out on copies of Sunken City in an attempt to Crusade their way to victory. A top 16 finish is nothing to scoff at but it will need to put up a few more results before the deck can be mentioned in the same breath as something like Red Deck Wins, let alone a true metagame staple.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">The above chart is every deck that has at least two appearances (which is around 2% volume) or a Top 8 this season. Pay special attention to that last column. It weighs a decks volume - that is how many times it appears in the Top 32 - against its' Win+ volume - that is its share of wins at an X-2 record or better. You expect the very best decks to "punch above their weight". Jeskai is doing much better than punching above its weight - it's suplexing a sumo wrestler. It's also twice as popular as the next most voluminous archetype and <i>still </i>manages to account for almost 40% of all wins at X-2 or better. </span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">In the words of some mid-90s commercial, that's domination homes.</span></div>
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<i style="font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif;">2019 is going to be a banner year for Pauper. I want to continue to be at the forefront of the metagame. If you like the work I do, please consider becoming a <a href="https://www.patreon.com/nerdtothecore">Patron</a>. Thank you!</i></div>
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Alexhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07097034277883199120noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4773432487889005772.post-8934422692779790032019-10-07T13:31:00.000-04:002019-10-07T13:31:01.961-04:00October 6th Pauper Challenge Winner's Metagame Breakdown<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Forgive me, for this post is likely to be briefer than usual. <a href="https://magic.wizards.com/en/articles/archive/news/october-7-2019-banned-and-restricted-announcement">Nothing was banned in today's update</a>. The next chance for bans, barring an emergency, is halfway through November. So the metagame we have today is the one we will have for the foreseeable future.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">The <a href="https://magic.wizards.com/en/articles/archive/mtgo-standings/pauper-challenge-2019-10-07">October 6th Pauper Challenge</a> is fairly representative of what you can expect. Jeskai Mindrange based around Ephemerate was far and away the most popular archetype. A baker's dozen of decks in the Top 32 ran the Astrolabe and a flicker engine, including half the Top 8. As if we did not have enough to worry about with Mnemonic Wall and Archaeomancer, Entropy263 has shown us that you can achieve a loop with Arcum's Astrolabe, Mystic Sanctuary, and Ghostly Flicker if you stack the triggers correctly.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">And at the same time, Stompy won. This was a story repeated many times last season. Astrolabe decks would dominate the Swiss rounds while Stompy ran over the Top 8. If you are looking for reason to the rhyme of the lack of announcement this could be it. Despite being an incredible force in both the rounds leading up to the Top 8 and the leagues, Ephemerate tends falter when it counts most.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">But correlation does not equal causation. Clearly Jeskai is doing something right to consistently take down multiple slots in the Top 8. </span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Jeskai the perfect expression of a Pauper midrange strategy. It can grind games to a halt with value and removal while also playing control just well enough to stay in the game against other similar strategies. It can falter in the face of Tron but is not dead in the water.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">But what Jeskai is best at is drawing cards. When the power level of the format, barring a few key cards, is relatively even, being able to draw more of those pieces can matter quite a bit. And thus we see why Stompy can succeed: cards in hand do not matter if your opponent never gets a chance to cast them.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">So beatdown is likely the answer next week. The problem, of course, is the abundance of Moment's Peace and Stonehorn Dignitary just waiting to be unleashed. Until aggro decks can adapt to counter these threats, the beatdown will continue to have a rough time remaining consistent.</span></div>
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<i style="font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif;">2019 is going to be a banner year for Pauper. I want to continue to be at the forefront of the metagame. If you like the work I do, please consider becoming a <a href="https://www.patreon.com/nerdtothecore">Patron</a>. Thank you!</i></div>
Alexhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07097034277883199120noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4773432487889005772.post-23354316038613317142019-10-01T09:25:00.001-04:002019-10-01T09:25:30.822-04:00September 30th Pauper Challenge Winner's Metagame Breakdown<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">The <i>Core 2020</i> season of Pauper Challenges ended with Jeskai on top. While it had the second most Challenge wins (3 to Stompy's 4), it took down 34 out of a possible 96 Top 8 slots. It occupied a quarter of all reported Top 32s and took down a third of all wins of X-2 decks or better.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Put another way, for an average event you could expect somewhere between 5 and 6 Jeskai decks between the Top 16 and Top 8. The next best performer were Burning-Tree Emissary beatdown decks (Stompy and Red Deck Wins). You could expect two between the Top 16 and Top 8.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">How would <i>Throne of Eldraine</i> season stack up against this? The <a href="https://magic.wizards.com/en/articles/archive/mtgo-standings/pauper-challenge-2019-09-30">first Challenge</a> provided more of the same. Two Jeskai decks made the Top 8 and one won the whole dang thing. There were 11 Jeskai decks in the Top 32. The next two most popular decks - Stompy and Flicker Tron - barely held a candle to Jeskai's numbers. Flicker Tron and Stompy each had one deck with a record of 5-2 or better (and both had a deck finish in the Top 32 at 3-4). These big three accounted for 19 decks in the Top 32 and for more than half of the allocated Win+.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><i>Win+ is a metric used on this blog. It measures a deck's success in a given tournament against the lowest finishing positive/neutral record. For a seven round event, a 4-3 record yields a Win+ of 1; 5-2 a Win+ 1, and so on.</i></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">There are some important pieces of information to be gleaned from this tournament. First, both Mono Black Control decks in the Top 8 found home for copies of Witch's Cottage. Neither ran Pestilence and the finalist ran two copies of Crypt Rats main (with two more in the board). Between the two, there were three copies of Thorn of the Black Rose (one main).</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">These decks are built for a different sort of grind - one of the Jeskai variety. Jeskai has been the best at dragging out games for quite some time, allowing their incremental value engine to take over. They also have a flexible sideboard that can often deal with traditional trump cards (like Pestilence). The two MBC decks in the Top 8 came prepared to fight aggressive strategies with 13 removal spells that cost one mana or less between the two main decks. They also overload on removal in an attempt to contain Jeskai.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">If this trend continues it would follow for Jeskai to take a longer game approach. Mystic Sanctuary only appeared in two decks this week. In the versions of Jeskai that have Pulse of Murasa, adding Mystic Sanctuary could help to create a loop with Kor Skyfisher that provides yet another path to inevitability. </span></div>
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<i style="font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif;">2019 is going to be a banner year for Pauper. I want to continue to be at the forefront of the metagame. If you like the work I do, please consider becoming a <a href="https://www.patreon.com/nerdtothecore">Patron</a>. Thank you!</i></div>
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Alexhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07097034277883199120noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4773432487889005772.post-90851746243434350872019-09-25T12:25:00.003-04:002019-09-25T12:25:46.504-04:00September 22 Pauper Challenge Winner's Metagame Breakdown<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">11 Challenges, one Mythic Championship Qualifier, and one Format Playoff. The <i>Core 2020</i> season closed with the <a href="https://magic.wizards.com/en/articles/archive/mtgo-standings/pauper-challenge-2019-09-23">September 22 Pauper Challenge</a>. <i>Throne of Eldraine </i>is coming and the format is likely to experience some shifts before the October 7th Banned and Restricted List Update even if nothing ends up leaving the format.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">The narrative coming out of Sunday was the "fall" of Jeskai. Despite making up half of the Top 8 only one build of Jeskai made the Top 4 and it was crowded out of the Finals. The other three decks in the Top 4 were all Stompy decks with slightly different creature suites. So which archetype had a better day? </span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">I don't have a solid answer. Jeskai decks were more popular - 9 total appearances - and they took home 40% of the Win+ points available in the Challenge. At the same time, Stompy won the dang thing and had three decks in the Top 4. It had 28% of all Win+ with 15.6% of the field. Compare this to Jeskai's 40% in 31.25% of the Top 32. If you were asking me to pick a winner on Sunday I would give the edge to Stompy, but not by a mile.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">And isn't that the story of <i>Core 2020</i> season? Jeskai is the most popular deck and racks up Top 8 appearances - 34 out of 96 total Top 8s - but doesn't win nearly as often. All Jeskai variants have 3 Challenge wins - Stompy has 4 in 10 Top 8 appearances.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><i>(These numbers are inclusive of the MCQ but not the Format Playoff, as that tournament only reported the Top 16).</i></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Jeskai, for better or worse, defined the last 13 weeks of high level Pauper play. It may be more accurate to say that the interaction of Mulldrifter and Ephemerate were the focal point, with Arcum's Astrolabe finding these cards and fixing mana, but that generates another question: is it okay for a format to have a clear best interaction around which everything revolves?</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">This question gets to the heart of differing opinions about what Pauper should be. Should there be a static point at the center that everyone is coming for, or should that center loci shift over time - and if so how long is appropriate?</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Over the 12 events (in 13 weeks), Jeskai made up a quarter of all Top 32 appearances but it accounted for over a third of all Win+. Put another way: for every record 5-2 or better, Jeskai accounted for 1/3 of those wins. When looking at every other macro-archetype, the next best performer was Burning-Tree Emissary at nearly 13%. Beyond that you have Ethereal Armor decks and Tron decks that try to play the same game as Jeskai, only with a mana abundance. Should the core of Arcum's Astrolabe-Ephemerate-Mulldrifter-Archaeomancer/Mnemonic Wall account for over a third of the Top 32 and over 40% of the weighted metagame? That's a question for the folks in Renton.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">My hope? Regardless of whether or not anything gets banned I'd like to see some evening out of these numbers. Moving into <i>Throne of Eldraine</i> season I'd like to see a smaller delta in the Jeskai numbers and I would like to see other decks claw back some of the metagame share. Whether this means people adopting maindeck hate measures or an overload of sideboard silver bullets, I'd like to see the meta pull itself free of Jeskai's gravtitational pull.</span></div>
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<i style="font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif;">2019 is going to be a banner year for Pauper. I want to continue to be at the forefront of the metagame. If you like the work I do, please consider becoming a <a href="https://www.patreon.com/nerdtothecore">Patron</a>. Thank you!</i></div>
Alexhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07097034277883199120noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4773432487889005772.post-69340820906592846302019-09-16T14:34:00.001-04:002019-09-16T14:34:27.173-04:00Examining the September 15th Pauper Playoff<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">There was not a Pauper Challenge this past weekend. Instead there was an invite only <a href="https://magic.wizards.com/en/articles/archive/mtgo-standings/pauper-format-playoff-2019-09-16">Format Playoff</a>. The result of the tournament is noteworthy - Elves over Eldrazi Green - but before we do I want to take a look at the Top 16. </span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Unlike Challenges, Playoffs only provide the Top 16 decks. Out of these 16 decks, 8 were Jeskai featuring an Ephemerate engine and two were Tron featuring the same engine - 62.5% of the Top 16. When looking at Win+ the Jeskai decks accounted for 41.67% of all Win+ and when you add the Tron decks, Ephemerate engine decks accounted for more than 58% of the total volume of Win+ in the Top 16. Compare this to Stompy - the next most popular deck (or archetype) with 2 appearances, which accounted for 16.67% of all Win+. It is not that the Ephemerate engine decks are better than the rest of the format, it is that they are significantly better and are forcing nearly every other archetype to the fringes. </span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Now, as to this event. Elves won the day. In the Top 8 it had to take down two different Jeskai decks, packing a grand total of three Electrickery and one Swirling Sandstorm. Even with that, Federusher came prepared for sweepers with Wrap in Vigor and Magnify, as well was running the maximum allowable copies of Lead the Stampede and Winding Way. They even packed a copy of Vivien's Grizzly in their sideboard. Needless to say they did not want to get blown out. Federusher also came ready for the mirror with two copies of Viridian Longbow main in addition to a Trinket Mage to fetch the equipment.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Federusher had to be Ponderouscz in the finals, with the latter player also making their way through two Jeskai decks. They were running Eldrazi Green - a mono green ramp deck that wants to resolve huge threats early while blowing up the opponent's lands. Normally a threat to Tron, Ponderouscz made some changes to help bulwark the deck against Jeskai. </span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Traditionally Eldrazi Green has leaned on the interaction of Arbor Elf and Wild Growth/Utopia Sprawl to generate its mana abundance. Historically this has been a fragile plan thanks to haha dead Elf. </span><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Ponderouscz build in redundancy with Nest Invader and Kozilek's Predator. While not as explosive as Arbor Elf, the Eldrazi Spawn provide an insurance policy that can help cast key spells. </span><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Ponderouscz also ran the full four copies of Entourage of Trest to keep the cards flowing. While they did not include any sweepers, it could be trivially easy for the deck to include copies of Electrickery or Swirling Sandstorm and set Utopia Sprawl to red in games two and three.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">The success of Eldrazi Green points to Jeskai's greed. The deck centers on four and five mana haymaker plays but tries to get away on 19 or 20 land. This is an exploit for land destruction strategies. While Jeskai can easily handle any threat Eldrazi Green can present it has a harder time doing so when its mana is constrained. </span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Can this strategy persist? Unclear. Eldrazi Green thrives when it is on the play. It also has a hard time against Burn and other decks that can pressure a life total while not needing a ton of mana. Additionally, if Elves remains a popular archetype Eldrazi Green could be in for a world of hurt thanks to Quirion Ranger. </span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Still, it's nice to live in a world where this deck was a good call for an event.</span></div>
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<i style="font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif;">2019 is going to be a banner year for Pauper. I want to continue to be at the forefront of the metagame. If you like the work I do, please consider becoming a <a href="https://www.patreon.com/nerdtothecore">Patron</a>. Thank you!</i></div>
Alexhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07097034277883199120noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4773432487889005772.post-1020825171952556262019-09-11T14:17:00.000-04:002019-09-11T14:17:13.454-04:00Why There Should Be Bans on October 7th<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Yesterday I ended my <a href="https://nerdtothecore.blogspot.com/2019/09/september-8-challenge-winners-metagame.html">entry on this blog</a> by saying that Arcum's Astrolabe, Ephemerate, and the Tron mana engine should be banned. Today I am going to do my best to explain my position on the matter. This is going to be replacing my usual <a href="https://www.patreon.com/nerdtothecore">Patron's Only</a> post for the week, but considering the subject matter I did not want to restrict access.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Similarly I am want to keep this on my blog because a lot of this is my opinion. While it is informed by data, this post is going to trend a little more negative than I'd like. I have heard a ton of feedback for I am endeavoring to be more positive on my more widely published pieces.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Before I go any further I am going to ask those of you reading to be civil in your comments. People who disagree with you are not crybabies or whiners. If you are reading this chances are you are like me and you want to see Pauper grow, succeed, and thrive. While we may see different routes to those ends we can at least agree on the end goal: a vibrant Pauper. </span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">This chart represents the online Pauper metagame, starting with the July 7th Challenge and running through the Challenge on September 8th. It is inclusive of the Mythic Championship Qualifier. It takes into account 352 decks from the Top 32s. While this is not a statistically significant sample size, it is fairly indicative of the metagame going back to the release of <i>Core 2020. </i>In that time, Jeskai decks have accounted for nearly 25% of all Top 32 lists - 87 decks to be exact - and 30 Top 8 slots (that's over 34%). If you are a regular reader you know I like the Win+ metric - something that measures wins above an X-3 record. Jeskai decks have accounted for nearly 33% of the Win+ share (indicated by the red trend line in the graph). All of these metrics seem to indicate the format is out of balance. Jeskai is defining the format it is dominating. </span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">What does a healthy format look like? A lot of this is going to be subjective but to me a healthy format is one that is dynamic. While there may be a Best Deck it should not be so potent that it is immune to shifts in the metagame. At the height of its power even post-Cloud of Faeries Delver had bad matchups that approached the game from different angles. By comparison the best way to beat an Ephemerate deck is to race. </span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">If we want to talk numbers, I think averaging between 12% and 15% of the top of the metagame is acceptable. Achieving a delta of between 3% and 5% of actual volume and weighted volume is likely ideal. The current delta for the top macro-archetype in Pauper currently sits at 8.24%.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">So how do we restore parity? Right now the best way is to take cards out of the format. The current crop of <i>Throne of Eldraine</i> spoilers continue the trend of role players as opposed to metagame shapers. To be clear this is fine - Pauper is defined by cards released at commons, not a wish list of high power cards. </span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">One thing I am not going to do this time around is advocate for a ban on the Monarch mechanic. While I do feel that it has no place in two-player <i>Magic </i>it has also never existed in a format where beatdown decks did not have to compete with Daze. Daze was such a huge beating against decks that wanted to present two-drop threats that it helped stifle aggro. The fact it was often paired with Augur of Bolas did not help things either. While it may be true that the Monarch is too good for Pauper, I would like to see what a deck like Stompy could do if it did not have to contend with Daze on top of cards like Kor Skyfisher and Augur of Bolas. In this world is the Monarch a dominant force or one that is constrained by the inherent risk of the mechanic? While I am inclined to believe the former if the Monarch could survive and be a viable option without wapring the meta, I am all for keeping it around.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">The case for banning Arcum's Astrolabe, as I see it, is as follows: it subverts the mana system. Prior to Astrolabe the format did not have great mana. While it was the best it had ever been between <i>Khans of Tarkir</i> Gain Lands and the <i>Ravnica </i>Block Bounce Lands, running more than two colors and reliably casting your spells was a bit of a stretch. Astrolabe did not just make the mana for decks better, it gave every one of those decks access to a card draw package. One reason to dip into multiple colors is to gain access to powerful effects outside your main chroma. In the world of Astrolabe this is trivial and has allowed four-color blue decks to rule the day. Make no mistake- all those Kor Skyfisher decks are blue decks and like all mana fixing in Pauper blue is able to make best use of Astrolabe. </span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Many Pauper players love Astrolabe, likening it to Fetch Lands. They make decks more consistent and make it easier to cast your spells. This is valid. At the same time when the mana in a format gets too good decks start to resemble one another. While there may be multiple varieties of Jeskai out there, they all run the same core cards. Aside from a few flex slots - Trinket Mage vs Spellstutter Sprite for example - what is the actual difference in these decks?</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Is this metagame diversity? </span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Ephemerate looks innocuous. Blink strategies have been around the format since before it was sanctioned. While Ghostly Flicker has helped to power out some game ending loops it required multiple cards - Mnemonic Wall and another card - to enable the victory formation. Even then many players felt that Ghostly Flicker was too powerful to keep around. </span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">I was not one of them. When I saw Ephemerate I thought it would be a neat card but not one that broke things in half. </span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">I was wrong.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Whereas Ghostly Flicker requires two friends to do work, Ephemerate only needs one. Targeting Mnemonic Wall or Archaeomancer with Ephemerate means you get the best spell out of your graveyard and then you can get back the Ephemerate and start the process over again. Pair Ephemerate with Mulldrifter to draw six cards for four total mana. It is not the effect of Ephemerate as much as the cost. At a single mana it is trivial to set up a turn where you can enact the loop with your shields up. Ephemerate also can store itself in exile, meaning that traditional graveyard hate is less useful against the card. Ephemerate has had nearly four months approaching the summit of Pauper, let's have the card retire in peace.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">The last card I want to see sunset is three cards - Urza's Mine, Urza's Power Plant, and Urza's Tower. When a deck has access to the best spells in the format thanks the best possible mana - Astrolabe and Prophetic Prism - and has a surplus of resources, it can run roughshod over the metagame. If Tron was simply being used to power out Fangren Marauder and Rolling Thunder it would be safe to keep around. However Tron's main use these days is as part of a prison deck that can lock people out of interacting as early as turn four. Unlike prison strategies in other formats there are very few natural foils available in Pauper. The pieces can be stored in the graveyard or exile and thanks to a Mystical Teachings toolbox they can be retrieved and protected with ease. </span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">While there are fair applications of Tron, there is no path forward for including powerful cards that does not end with Tron running them and doing so, casting twice as many per turn thanks to 1+1+1 = 7. </span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Tron also does work in stifling other end game decks. Slower midrange and control decks cannot keep up with a deck that simply out-manas them. As such, as long as Tron remains in the format these decks will tend towards Tron. One high profile Tron pilot has said the only reason the decks isn't dominating online is because of how physically taxing it is to pilot correctly.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">So what happens if these bans take place? I hesitate to speculate too much. Boros Monarch and Stompy likely remain as solid options but I also imagine a new control deck will emerge and Familiar combo will see a resurgence. Regardless of all this I hope that October 7th ends with a healthier, more balance Pauper metagame.</span></div>
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<i style="font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif;">2019 is going to be a banner year for Pauper. I want to continue to be at the forefront of the metagame. If you like the work I do, please consider becoming a <a href="https://www.patreon.com/nerdtothecore">Patron</a>. Thank you!</i></div>
Alexhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07097034277883199120noreply@blogger.com7tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4773432487889005772.post-12767190740441497122019-09-10T14:41:00.002-04:002019-09-10T14:41:42.618-04:00September 8 Challenge Winner's Metagame Breakdown<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">On <a href="https://magic.wizards.com/en/articles/archive/mtgo-standings/pauper-challenge-2019-09-09">September 8th</a> Hellsau won the Challenge with Flicker Tron. Five Jeskai decks made the Top 8. Despite the fact the interaction of Mulldriter and Ephemerate have dominated the Pauper metagame for the past several months, there have not been many innovations when it comes to countering the menace. </span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">But don't worry - there were plenty of copies of Leave no Trace for Heroic and Hexproof - the scourge of September 1st.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">To be fair it is hard to metagame against the Jeskai deck - and against Ephemerate-Mulldrifter- in the abstract. The decks that are able to run these cards dedicate multiple slots to cheap interaction to protect their engine. Some decks can come prepared - Spellstutter Sprite is quite good at eating Ephemerate - but the best Sprite decks these days just so happen to also be Jeskai decks. </span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">There are ways to fight the engine. Magma Spray and Last Breath can exile creatures in response to Ephemerate. Castigate can nab the card directly from the hand. There are a bounty of cards that can hit a spell in the graveyard, provided the shields are down. Heck, Faerie Trickery can get it off the stack for good, as can Syncopate and Liquify.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Have all of these been attempted? Possibly. It is also possible that running these cards might leave you at a disadvantage against the rest of the field. </span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Still, Jeskai was five of the Top 8 decks on Sunday with another three in the Top 16. If you add up all Ephemerate-Mulldrifter decks in the Top 16, you come out to 10: 8 Jeskai, 2 Tron. That's out of 15 such decks in the Top 32. A 66% conversion rate to a 5-2 or better record is pretty darn good. </span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">And this is a sustained level of success, at least with regards to Jeskai. On August 11, Jeskai decks comprised 25% of the challenge Top 32 decks and accumulated 30% of all Win+ points. By the end of Sunday the volume shrunk to 24.72% but the Win+ volume rose to 32.96%. Even as the deck gets less popular, it gets better.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">These numbers should give Pauper players pause. They indicate that nothing can keep Jeskai down. Even if you want to take solace in the results from Sunday that means Tron is the hero (and we all know the Tron memes at this point). With <i>Throne of Eldraine</i> looking to play in space that will not benefit the format of commons it means that other action may need to be taken to ensure the health of the format moving forward.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Yes I'm talking about bans. Arcum's Astrolabe, Ephemerate, and Tron.</span></div>
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<i style="font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif;">2019 is going to be a banner year for Pauper. I want to continue to be at the forefront of the metagame. If you like the work I do, please consider becoming a <a href="https://www.patreon.com/nerdtothecore">Patron</a>. Thank you!</i></div>
Alexhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07097034277883199120noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4773432487889005772.post-57180927169219046012019-09-02T17:01:00.000-04:002019-09-02T17:01:17.362-04:00September 1 Pauper Challenge Winner's Metagame<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">And now for something completely different. The <a href="https://magic.wizards.com/en/articles/archive/mtgo-standings/pauper-challenge-2019-09-02">September 1st Pauper Challenge</a> was won by a Jeskai deck featuring both Arcum's Astrolabe and Ephemerate. But Ethereal Armor had a breakout performance.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Last week (<a href="https://www.patreon.com/posts/no-bans-no-29491459">in a Patrons only post</a>) I said that Ethereal Armor was the way to go moving forward. In an <a href="https://www.channelfireball.com/articles/living-in-astroland/?_ga=2.154420349.476559753.1567453814-76353412.1388377879">article that went live today</a> I expanded on this notion. Namely, the proliferation of Arcum's Astrolabe decks makes the various Jeskai and Tron decks impossible to predict. While a macro strategy may be discernible, these decks could run any card they darn well please. So rather than trying to interact on a meaningful axis, the best way to attack them is to go as fast as possible and ignore their ability to interact with you. Both Heroic and Hexproof are able to do this, while piling on the damage thanks to Ethereal Armor and other force multipliers. </span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">These decks did more than perform well, they pushed out most other linear decks. Burn put up one Top 32 finish while Affinity was nowhere to be found. The aggressive bend on September 1st also kneecapped Tron decks, as none appeared in the Top 16.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">The winning Jeskai list seemed to be prepared for this eventuality. While it did not overload on removal main it did have a copy of Journey to Nowhere, which could have proved instrumental it taking out Lagonna-Band Trailblazers during the Swiss rounds. The winner also packed two Spellstutter Sprite main, and that faerie has been feasting on one drops for more than a decade. Finally, Cracudo packed two copies of Standard Bearer in the sideboard as a way to obfuscate the plan of Hexproof, Heroic, and Stompy. </span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">So where does that leave the metagame moving into September 8th? Jeskai remains the dominant archetype and will surely adapt to the rise of these "go-tall" decks. The strategy must also adjust to meet the resurgent threat of Tribe Combo. If I were preparing for next week, I wouldn't leave home without access to Chainer's Edict and Pestilence. </span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">But that's just me.</span></div>
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<i style="font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif;">2019 is going to be a banner year for Pauper. I want to continue to be at the forefront of the metagame. If you like the work I do, please consider becoming a <a href="https://www.patreon.com/nerdtothecore">Patron</a>. Thank you!</i></div>
Alexhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07097034277883199120noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4773432487889005772.post-10194864185885515432019-08-26T13:32:00.002-04:002019-08-26T13:32:50.164-04:00A Weekend of Winner's Metagames<div style="text-align: center;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: large;">A Look at the August 24 MTGO MCQ & August 25 Challenge</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">It was quite the weekend for Pauper. August 24 saw a 9 round (plus Top 8) <a href="https://magic.wizards.com/en/articles/archive/mtgo-standings/pauper-mcq-2019-08-25">Mythic Championship Qualifier on <i>Magic Online</i></a> and the cream certainly rose to the top. <a href="https://magic.wizards.com/en/articles/archive/mtgo-standings/pauper-challenge-2019-08-26">Sunday saw a much more reasonable Challenge</a> (7 rounds plus Top 8). Considering that nothing was banned in today's announcement, it is going to pay to study these results.</span></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiEHfmec9wk6yBoDiHDcSlvWozcURB0dYXmgx_flSP_QKDA-ygMMts0EftxLVFgJkmqBQ_bJcx6RgQnrGC8LWHg2sgLaXtAfz-PM9sTKXL4FtLC-mdzN87nGjdkMQB5SWGCZBWLlJthNWI/s1600/MCQ.png" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="604" data-original-width="560" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiEHfmec9wk6yBoDiHDcSlvWozcURB0dYXmgx_flSP_QKDA-ygMMts0EftxLVFgJkmqBQ_bJcx6RgQnrGC8LWHg2sgLaXtAfz-PM9sTKXL4FtLC-mdzN87nGjdkMQB5SWGCZBWLlJthNWI/s320/MCQ.png" width="296" /></a></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Let's start, then, with the MCQ. At 9 rounds, the break even point for Win+ was a 5-4 record, which didn't take place until outside the Top 32. This was a massive event and the additional rounds helped the best decks rise to the top of the standings. While there was only one Tron deck in the Top 32 it made Top 8, as well as 5 of the 17 Jeskai decks. Still, the day was won by Hexproof (featuring four copies of Arcum's Astrolabe). </span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">When taken as a whole, the Jeskai macro performed extremely well while Stompy did fine. Every other deck that placed in the Top 32 also did at least average with regards to Win+.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">At the end of Saturday, Jeskai cemented itself as the deck to beat and Hexproof provided a blueprint on how to do that, building off of the work that Stompy has done this season.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Jeskai is very good at handling singular small threats. While Stompy can go tall, it can still fall prey to a timely Skred. Savage Swipe can turn a tempo profit, but better than going up on tempo is blanking opposing cards. Slippery Bogle is quite good at that. As a result, Hexproof can simply go around Jeskai's main mode of interaction. While the deck is fairly easy to hate out, the archetype should be further explored as a way to attack Jeskai.</span></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhX-R0hgq7SBkNBqUn_nXc-QLAmT1B6JwFaFzICD7c0MW-vQ1WxAtO0iqTMv3-mnbuD-0HoIFpWEsi6dXHItkDoR1_Ij4NqM1DMHOquqb26YrUHyV24RZNadDJhB8oRD28O3urvn_S0_tw/s1600/August+25.png" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="856" data-original-width="568" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhX-R0hgq7SBkNBqUn_nXc-QLAmT1B6JwFaFzICD7c0MW-vQ1WxAtO0iqTMv3-mnbuD-0HoIFpWEsi6dXHItkDoR1_Ij4NqM1DMHOquqb26YrUHyV24RZNadDJhB8oRD28O3urvn_S0_tw/s320/August+25.png" width="212" /></a></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">What about Sunday? There were more archetypes in the Top 32, as well as 8 different archetypes in the Top 8. There were two Jeskai decks, and this time the one featuring Trinket Mage won the whole thing. The metagame seemed to adjust to the success of aggressive strategies, as indicated by the relatively poor performance of Stompy. At the same time, singular threat go tall decks - Heroic and Hexproof - both made Top 8. When taken together, the Ethereal Armor decks are out performing Affinity, Burn, and Elves. </span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Does that mean you should run the card next week? Probably not! Hexproof and Heroic are both highly susceptible to Chainer's Edict style effects, which just so happen to be well positioned in the metagame. That being said, properly constructing these decks could catch the metagame by surprise. That means lessening your reliance on Auras - we see you Leave no Trace. This is easy enough to do in Heroic. In Hexproof it could mean adopting Travel Preparations.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">While the best Jeskai deck isn't known, the fact is Jeskai is currently the best deck in the metagame. It's time to put a target on the archetype and work taking it down a notch. How are you planning on melting some snow?</span></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhr9pilILaDcEFe_LgK1tr0oP4vE1edEHxZP112vhx1M3IdPuFfk7mL0JTf0EmFLlmzBmRw6rsNW5i4lQEg7Q1lYDDZYi4Xqyg48FquzNnSZ641kZ3T1KkA9EEK3RVe6HYPlbVwobMEx6E/s1600/Aug25Comp.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="829" data-original-width="1600" height="206" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhr9pilILaDcEFe_LgK1tr0oP4vE1edEHxZP112vhx1M3IdPuFfk7mL0JTf0EmFLlmzBmRw6rsNW5i4lQEg7Q1lYDDZYi4Xqyg48FquzNnSZ641kZ3T1KkA9EEK3RVe6HYPlbVwobMEx6E/s400/Aug25Comp.png" width="400" /></a></div>
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<i style="font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif;">2019 is going to be a banner year for Pauper. I want to continue to be at the forefront of the metagame. If you like the work I do, please consider becoming a <a href="https://www.patreon.com/nerdtothecore">Patron</a>. Thank you!</i></div>
Alexhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07097034277883199120noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4773432487889005772.post-64685015748725755742019-08-19T14:21:00.002-04:002019-08-19T14:21:33.428-04:00August 18th Pauper Challenge Winner's Metagame<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">On a recent broadcast of the Pauper Premiere League, Charles Jenkins (aka birbman aka Entropy263) said that the Pauper metagame currently pits beatdown decks against Ephemerate decks. The <a href="https://magic.wizards.com/en/articles/archive/mtgo-standings/pauper-challenge-2019-08-19">August 18th Pauper Challenge</a> showed that even if aggro wins a battle it might be losing the war. </span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Let's be clear: out of the seven challenges this season, 5 have been won by aggressive decks and two have been won by Ephemerate decks. On some level this makes sense - aggressive decks win these days by being faster than potential Ephemerate loops.Out of the 56 top 8 slots, 23 have gone to Ephemerate decks and 21 have gone to different styles of aggressive decks (not counting Burn). The metagame is polarizing with Ephmerate taking on both the midrange and the control roles.<br /></span></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjLgo9m_OSPJ8YNr9eO7XHdNoXXNc_5_sGU82xqSTnQxVZVzwAKJZJHxzOJL5gS6mVQ39_MOGm1poZwTnMko6yDeBWcLxhrxYdu-wGB9-FbvSEOIsh4ppKz_iKThHAiDRsAkID5nQKuCkI/s1600/Screen+Shot+2019-08-19+at+11.50.19+AM.png" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="732" data-original-width="564" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjLgo9m_OSPJ8YNr9eO7XHdNoXXNc_5_sGU82xqSTnQxVZVzwAKJZJHxzOJL5gS6mVQ39_MOGm1poZwTnMko6yDeBWcLxhrxYdu-wGB9-FbvSEOIsh4ppKz_iKThHAiDRsAkID5nQKuCkI/s320/Screen+Shot+2019-08-19+at+11.50.19+AM.png" width="246" /></a></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Is this a bad thing? While there has been a homogenization in the midrange department, aggressive decks are arguably experiencing a renaissance. There were four different beatdown strategies (inclusive of Burn) in yesterday's Top 8 and Stompy took down its third challenge.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">At the same time, Jeskai Blink - an Astrolabe -Ephemerate - Archaeomancer deck - was both the moist popular and the most successful archetype. And this is not isolated to a single tournament either. Across all seven Challenges since the release of <i>Core 2020</i>, Jeskai Blink is the second most popular deck with 22 appearances. It trails only Jeskai Trinket - a similar strategy that also runs Trinket Mage - by seven entrants in Top 32s. The Blink variety, however, has 22 wins above an X-3 record (Win+), as compared to the 15 from Jeskai Trinket. The best beatdown deck in this regard? Stompy with a Win+ score of 13 in 17 appearances.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">The Pauper metagame is not as easy as saying "Astrolabe is everywhere" or "Ephemerate is broken". Instead, there is a real tension where the best archetypes are leveraging the power of these two cards together to have a strong season, but still can fall prey to creatures attacking for damage.</span></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjsJJXDg36Zo2k7qfPnmDt7UDrqYORojL_4tKiBTdpm82Aw9IlRs8Q93ZuWFnPO6k7-Z2679ictnm5OzZDV8ehv-srMCjW68XUK5IU5xqcYWr2p_yLq07sQ-GFA2iC8KuYA4zrbbJyQgSo/s1600/Screen+Shot+2019-08-19+at+1.57.39+PM.png" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1056" data-original-width="762" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjsJJXDg36Zo2k7qfPnmDt7UDrqYORojL_4tKiBTdpm82Aw9IlRs8Q93ZuWFnPO6k7-Z2679ictnm5OzZDV8ehv-srMCjW68XUK5IU5xqcYWr2p_yLq07sQ-GFA2iC8KuYA4zrbbJyQgSo/s320/Screen+Shot+2019-08-19+at+1.57.39+PM.png" width="230" /></a></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">So now we are a week away from the next Banned and Restricted List update. The question remains - what should be done? </span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">This is the part of the story where people expect me to call for bans. To say that some of these cards are detrimental to the health of the format and that they should be removed before they can do more damage.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Here's the part where I talk about how much I hate playing against the inevitability of Flicker Tron and how those games can feel helpless. It's where I tell you that I think that recycling a Stonehorn Dignitary is a net negative for Pauper when it is a popular, if not dominant, strategy.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Except this time I'm not going to do any of that.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Well, I will say I hate losing to endless copies of Stonehorn Dignitary. But that's because I like attacking.</span></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh53lWzQYr5GjzA5CYE6BWjkWOwrIaBxSHCAMUjzoMtTP54fWSxMOSZ6TqU745uNl_rDBS-hXHSc3P8nRREpykKW-3zP_93g7F5OV4Ayj5OYt-9QvqmSov5dnVwQ6WunZ98ofQl2ucLdjk/s1600/Screen+Shot+2019-08-19+at+1.57.57+PM.png" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1050" data-original-width="618" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh53lWzQYr5GjzA5CYE6BWjkWOwrIaBxSHCAMUjzoMtTP54fWSxMOSZ6TqU745uNl_rDBS-hXHSc3P8nRREpykKW-3zP_93g7F5OV4Ayj5OYt-9QvqmSov5dnVwQ6WunZ98ofQl2ucLdjk/s320/Screen+Shot+2019-08-19+at+1.57.57+PM.png" width="188" /></a></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Despite this I don't think any bans are currently warranted. The best deck - Jeskai Blink - isn't even 10% of all Top 32 decks and it's weighted volume - that is the proportional volume of its strong finishes - is not that much greater than its actual volume. Tron, while strong, is far from an unmovable object.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">And yet I think that at some point something will happen. As we have seen time and time again, when Pauper cards subvert the traditional mana system, they tend to get the axe. In this vein I could absolutely see Tron being sent to a farm upstate at some point in the future. Same with Arcum's Astrolabe. While Astrolabe does not subvert the mana system on a volume rate, it does so by making splashing too easy. If Pauper were Standard and the card would rotate it would be a novelty. As it stands, it makes running base-blue Best Spells a tad too easy.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">All of this would be far more imminent if not for the strength of being the beatdown as of late. Even with overwhelming endgames, these decks still struggle when pressure is applied early and often. So if you're thinking about jumping into the Pauper Mythic Qualifier this weekend, you'd do well to be turning your creatures sideways.</span></div>
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<i style="font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif;">2019 is going to be a banner year for Pauper. I want to continue to be at the forefront of the metagame. If you like the work I do, please consider becoming a <a href="https://www.patreon.com/nerdtothecore">Patron</a>. Thank you!</i></div>
Alexhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07097034277883199120noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4773432487889005772.post-29163925398694580682019-08-12T14:49:00.001-04:002019-08-12T14:49:27.918-04:00August 11 Pauper Challenge Winner's Metagame<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">The <a href="https://magic.wizards.com/en/articles/archive/mtgo-standings/pauper-challenge-2019-08-12">August 11th Pauper Challenge</a> was the second in a row to be won by a Burning-Tree Emissary deck. This is <a href="https://www.channelfireball.com/articles/why-creatures-cant-keep-pace-in-pauper/?_ga=2.24965112.356001163.1565615570-318741937.1524598286">hot on the heels of some yahoo writing</a> about how creatures have a hard time keeping pace in Pauper. So let's look at the results in context.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">The winning deck - Red Deck Wins - went through two Jeskai midrange decks before defeating Delver. Last week's winning Stompy deck beat two Jeskai midrange decks before coming out ahead of Hexproof. Both times the aggro decks completely avoided Tron in the elimination rounds and more specifically, they dodged the brand of Tron that can blank a combat phase. Would the result have been the same if, for example TopGrinder was in the same half of the bracket as Modern_Monkey?</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">When I wrote about creatures and their relative lack of strength, I feel like I glossed over a key point. It is not that the creatures that already exist are bad. Rather, as new cards get added to the format it is <i>far easier for spells to break through than creatures</i>. This creates an imbalance in the arms race between aggro and control strategies. My hope is that moving forward we see more synergy driven aggressive creatures in the vein of Cloudfin Raptor to help bolster decks - and players - that like turning creatures sideways.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Back to the metagame at large. The various builds of Jeskai Midrange continue to succeed at a decent clip. Three main stripes have emerged. The first, Jeskai Trinket, is typified by the presence of Trinket Mage. The more popular (and arguably better) build is Jeskai Blink, leaning harder on Ephemerate. Jeskai Faeries is not as strong as the other builds and gets the moniker from running Spellstutter Sprite and other Faerie synergies. Flicker Tron continues to put up strong numbers.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Being blunt for a second, the strength of the prison Tron decks has me concerned for the long term health of the format. I think a Turbo Fog deck existing is good as a check for when beatdown gets too powerful. However, when Turbo Fog becomes a sustained dominant strategy, that chokes off an entire angle of attack in a metagame. The fail rate of these Tron decks is non-zero, but they are incredibly consistent and can often lock down a game starting turn four. If they are on the play against beatdown, that could mean game over.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">The cut off for being featured this week is either a single Top 8 finish <i>or</i> four appearances across the 6 challenges. The three Jeskai decks listed before total 47 appearances - or around 25% of all decks represented across the last month and a half. All those loop Tron decks? 22 total appearances, or almost 11.5%. Burning-Tree Emissary does slightly better with 24 appearances and 12.5% of all Top 32 decks.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">So going fast seems to be a way to win. If Jeskai is popular, and aggro beats Jeskai, the question that remains is how to defeat Tron? The answer is to sidestep combat damage. Stompy might struggle here, but Goblin Grenade is great and ending games. Fling - out of both Affinity and Hexproof - works. And then there's my personal favorite in Falkenrath Noble. </span></div>
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<i style="font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif;">2019 is going to be a banner year for Pauper. I want to continue to be at the forefront of the metagame. If you like the work I do, please consider becoming a <a href="https://www.patreon.com/nerdtothecore">Patron</a>. Thank you!</i></div>
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Alexhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07097034277883199120noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4773432487889005772.post-24980051495856336482019-08-06T14:58:00.001-04:002019-08-07T12:00:25.857-04:00August 4th Pauper Challenge Winner's Metagame - Updated<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">If you look at the deck that won the <a href="https://magic.wizards.com/en/articles/archive/mtgo-standings/pauper-challenge-2019-08-05">August 4th Pauper Challenge</a> you'd think all was right in the world of commons. Stompy - a longtime powerhouse - beat a Bogle brew in the finals and took down two midrange decks on the way. Everything looks good above the surface. The rest of the iceberg, well, that isn't so pretty.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">Pauper is currently an interesting beast. There is archetype diversity - that is, there are tons of discrete decks that seen play - but when looking at macro-archetypes, we are seeing a serious stratification. Over the five challenges since <i>Core 2020, </i>Jeskai Arcum's Astrolabe-Ephemerate decks have been the best strategy with Arcum's Astrolabe-Ephemerate- Ghostly Flicker Tron decks currently pacing for the silver medal. While aggressive strategies exist at the moment, they have a hard time keeping up with decks that can consistently blank the combat phase, cast Moment's Peace, or undo several turns of attacking thanks to Weather the Storm. </span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">This is not the fault of any one card or interaction. Rather it's the cumulative effect of using the common slot to print highly synergistic cards for Limited environments and keeping the slot free from powerful pure offensive threats.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">Let's use <i>Modern Horizons</i> as an example. The best creature to come out of the set, to this point, is Faerie Seer. It didn't earn this award on the back of its power in the red zone but rather because of how well it synergizes with both Spellstutter Sprite and Ninja of the Deep Hours. Compare this to other <i>Modern Horizons</i> cards seeded for strategies - Ephemerate and Winding Way. Ephemerate exists to help make the Blink deck work in draft and Winding Way exists to supplement the Golgari graveyard deck and the Gruul "lands in graveyard" archetype. Put them into Pauper and they take on completely different roles. </span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">Setting aside Winding Way for the moment I want to focus on Ephemerate. All the synergies it had in draft are dialed way past 11 in constructed. It is a two-card engine with Archaeomancer and its kin. That's not a problem in it of itself. Similarly, Arcum's Astrolabe is not a problem on its own but rather when you put it into the context of the existing Pauper environment things look different. </span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">So what about the creatures? The options for attacking pale in comparison to the reward for delaying the game. Even with an abundance of three-power two-drops available, the creatures get outclassed far too quickly to really matter past the first few turns. This is reflected in the challenge stats.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">The minimal threshold for appearing in this chart is either a single Top 8 or three total Top 32 appearances. </span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">I want to focus on Weighted Volume. This is a newer metric based on <a href="https://magic.wizards.com/en/events/coverage/2019MC4/mythic-championship-iv-modern-preview-2019-07-24">this Frank Karsten column</a>. It takes the total accumulated Win+ (an X-2 record is a Win+ of 1, X-1 is a W+ 2, etc) and then takes each individual deck's Win+ to extrapolate a weighted volume - that is, how much of the Top 16 records is a deck taking up (on average). The top two in this metric are Jeskai Trinket (typified by Trinket Mage) and Jeskai Blink (typified by a lack of Trinket Mage and a lack of Spellstutter Sprite). In fact, these two make up the bulk of Jeskai's success. Summing the macro-archetypes, we end up with a Top 10 that looks something like this:</span></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhy49zOv5lpQlad2kvjuAGXxpVffQvzHYMWq-S6gyyQzlYEIB14dxGeL8tW4E_cO1DpnPVyvaZK3w707q-K9KMgJViFlx_zO7qZBHmB2JCC-x9OMo56JiZSaNs18_vHXvxukH1izAJbwNk/s1600/Screen+Shot+2019-08-06+at+2.50.42+PM.png" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="510" data-original-width="572" height="285" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhy49zOv5lpQlad2kvjuAGXxpVffQvzHYMWq-S6gyyQzlYEIB14dxGeL8tW4E_cO1DpnPVyvaZK3w707q-K9KMgJViFlx_zO7qZBHmB2JCC-x9OMo56JiZSaNs18_vHXvxukH1izAJbwNk/s320/Screen+Shot+2019-08-06+at+2.50.42+PM.png" width="320" /></a></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">Jeskai Astrolabe-Ephemerate makes up just about 16% of all Top 32s through five Challenges yet has over 25% of wins allocated to the Top 16. Loop Tron - that is any Tron deck that focuses on either an Ephemerate or Ghostly Flicker endgame - has over 14% of all Win+ score, topping it's actual volume by over 6%. </span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">When looking at the other top decks from this season, they all fall much more in line between their weighted volume and their actual volume. All of this is to say that the Jeskai and Tron decks are not only the best decks but are the best decks by a decently sized margin <i>and</i> that the decks that are trying to come for them are not nearly as strong.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">So where does this leave Pauper? Right now, outside of an abundance over strong creatures coming in <i>Throne of Eldraine</i> I'm not sure. The incentive to have a dominating late-game is incredibly high and outside multiple threats on the magnitude of Insectile Aberration I do not see that changing outside of bans.</span></div>
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<i style="font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif;">2019 is going to be a banner year for Pauper. I want to continue to be at the forefront of the metagame. If you like the work I do, please consider becoming a <a href="https://www.patreon.com/nerdtothecore">Patron</a>. Thank you!</i><br />
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<i style="font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif;"><b>EDIT:</b> </i><span style="font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif;">It was brought to my attention yesterday that my math was off. I didn't have a chance to check my calculations until today. Upon review, this is the corrected chart for macro-archetypes (and this time I grouped both Red Deck Wins and Goblins under the Goblins macro).</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif;">So what's changed? Quite a bit actually. Instead of seriously out performing their volume, both Jeskai and Loop Tron are merely performing above average. In fact, Loop Tron is punching above it's weight class in a manner similar to Affinity. </span><br />
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<span style="font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif;">This image of the metagame is far more healthy and diverse, even if concentrated at the top. All that being said, if an archetype is making up almost a quarter of al Top 32 decks and accounts for nearly 30% of wins above 32nd place, then that may be a sign of imbalance.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif;">But imbalance is not the same as unhealthy. So things are not nearly as dire as I thought yesterday. On that note, I do want to leave this update with one more chart.</span><br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiPpDZOdv8Xrjaoe8xqVb8_LCuZwDTDy9ei43-kXwgnANnTQgvYGb4ONvYXbEzuvWvmiJDrYljze7cSP0rZsZxnUFFQMa1D4M41QP6MpQepzy5HnvEsbERhvDYuk1_BnvQJyZs_c3ceuo0/s1600/chart.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="371" data-original-width="600" height="246" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiPpDZOdv8Xrjaoe8xqVb8_LCuZwDTDy9ei43-kXwgnANnTQgvYGb4ONvYXbEzuvWvmiJDrYljze7cSP0rZsZxnUFFQMa1D4M41QP6MpQepzy5HnvEsbERhvDYuk1_BnvQJyZs_c3ceuo0/s400/chart.png" width="400" /></a></div>
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Blue is the weighted percentage of Win+, red is actual volume. </div>
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What do you think about this chart?</div>
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Alexhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07097034277883199120noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4773432487889005772.post-30670012407729971802019-07-29T15:23:00.000-04:002019-07-29T15:23:50.265-04:00July 28th Pauper Challenge Winner's Metagame<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">We are a month into <i>Core 2020</i> season and more importantly a month into the unification of Pauper. Despite the the fact that <i>Modern Horizons </i>looks to have had a more profound impact on the format, we can start to draw some conclusions about where things are and where they are going. The <a href="https://magic.wizards.com/en/articles/archive/mtgo-standings/pauper-challenge-2019-07-29">July 28th Pauper Challenge</a> provides a helpful guide for the current terrain.</span></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhdxQjsmfVinzyauvMaosPj56rAt6CV-vc8LY2zO8NVtVe58s3y8QvLHauuenY8oaCx6l3XvNfiEvXeQZx8-WEP7VGoOXICQLjln1SV6yw4biH3wSgJGzCPbHizTuR0s5Clo6Bos2VGoRQ/s1600/Screen+Shot+2019-07-29+at+1.53.33+PM.png" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="812" data-original-width="562" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhdxQjsmfVinzyauvMaosPj56rAt6CV-vc8LY2zO8NVtVe58s3y8QvLHauuenY8oaCx6l3XvNfiEvXeQZx8-WEP7VGoOXICQLjln1SV6yw4biH3wSgJGzCPbHizTuR0s5Clo6Bos2VGoRQ/s320/Screen+Shot+2019-07-29+at+1.53.33+PM.png" width="221" /></a></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Jeskai Blink is starting to emerge as the best three-color Arcum's Astrolabe deck. Rather than leaning on Trinket Mage, the deck sings thanks to Ephemerate and the interactions with Mulldrifter and Archaeomancer. The combination of these cards gives the deck powerful late game, that, if it get get there, feels unbeatable. Seeker of the Way and Aven Riftwatcher can help buy time. The winner of yesterday's challenge - Heisen01 - opted for the former. They also decided to include Custodi Squire as a way to treat the graveyard as a toolbox. Heisen01 also maindecked two copies of Mystic Remora, which makes a ton of sense in a metagame that has gone Ephemerate and Astrolabe happy. Even if it never draws you a card it can buy you time to get those tools the hard way: during your draw step. </span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Heisen01 took out Elves in the Quarterfinals and a mirror - albeit without Remora and Squire - in the Semifinals. They then secured victory by defeating Goblins.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">But let's talk about Goblins. I am a huge fan of the deck (and the list I used in week one of the Pauper Premier League placed 12th in the event thanks to Sneaky Robot) and punninglinguist took a slightly different build all the way to the Finals. Punninglinguist beat Red Deck Wins in the Quarterfinals and then Hellsau on Flicker Tron in the Semifinals. It is that Semifinal victory that deserves note. Hellsau's deck is designed to beat aggressive strategies. It packs four copies of the combat phase blanking Stonehorn Dignitary main and two copies of Moment's Peace in the 60 (and four copies in the 75). Needless to say, Hellsau hates attacking. And yet Goblins got there. Goblins, thanks to Goblin Grenade, has quite a bit of reach - that is once it gets the opponent low enough it can simply start pointing burn at a life total. Unlike other Tron decks, Hellsau chose not to run Weather the Storm so outside of Pulse of Murasa it had no way to gain life at instant speed (outside of blinking a Lone Missionary). Although Goblins fell to Jeskai Blink in the finals, the fact that it could race a deck that dedicated one-tenth of its maindeck to besting beatdown is heartening.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">And that is where things are. The current metagame has three distinct camps: Flicker Tron decks, Astrolabe Value decks, and Linear Aggro. While little has to change week-to-week for the first two buckets, Linear Aggro has to constantly adapt. While Stompy might be best one week, Heroic could be best the next, only to be quickly replaced by Goblins or Red Deck Wins. And that is to say nothing of decks like Affinity or Hexproof which can also snipe wins.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">The question remains: is this as good as Pauper can be? While there exists a variety of cards seeing play, the number of viable engines has been reduced. To be clear, I am not calling for a ban of any one card, but rather want to see other engines be viable. The Astrolabe and Mnemonic Wall cores should be competitive, but so should Monarch (only appearing in three Top 32 decks) and Tethmos High Priest. Pauper might be good right now but I believe it can be better. Now that the format is officially recognized I am eager to see what <i>Throne of Eldraine</i> has in store. </span></div>
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<i style="font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif;">2019 is going to be a banner year for Pauper. I want to continue to be at the forefront of the metagame. If you like the work I do, please consider becoming a <a href="https://www.patreon.com/nerdtothecore">Patron</a>. Thank you!</i></div>
Alexhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07097034277883199120noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4773432487889005772.post-90913460707660254412019-07-23T15:29:00.001-04:002019-07-23T15:29:38.502-04:00July 21 Pauper Challenge Winner's Metagame<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">On July 21st, it was right to be the Beatdown in the <a href="https://magic.wizards.com/en/articles/archive/mtgo-standings/pauper-challenge-2019-07-22">Pauper Challenge</a>. Stompy and Heroic met in the finals and although Stompy was crowned the winner, it appears that the finalists split. This was in the wake of yet another event where Arcum's Astrolabe value decks were everywhere. It appears that when decks take time off to play with trinkets, creatures can do some work on a life total. </span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjPgRIfNfV_dwKXIrmJJ1sTI-7K7t0q2Fl7_1jEojAaJHiQtjnVrva4D79m_KGVB1eZD46hvbuLSs0ZqwdVpkKg_1QYVmq4wsw7fL-bHzRJfSFW0obsSc-58Yb4iHKFjGszbEGGELd1WnA/s1600/Screen+Shot+2019-07-22+at+11.49.15+AM.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="824" data-original-width="558" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjPgRIfNfV_dwKXIrmJJ1sTI-7K7t0q2Fl7_1jEojAaJHiQtjnVrva4D79m_KGVB1eZD46hvbuLSs0ZqwdVpkKg_1QYVmq4wsw7fL-bHzRJfSFW0obsSc-58Yb4iHKFjGszbEGGELd1WnA/s320/Screen+Shot+2019-07-22+at+11.49.15+AM.png" width="216" /></a></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">That's only part of the story. As Astrolabe decks have become a plurality of the metagame it makes sense that decks start gunning for them. That is, in order to beat the best you have to adjust to their weak points. The Jeskai Faeries deck in the Top 4 was able to use Spellstutter Sprite as a way to foil commonly played cards out of the Astrolabe decks including the namesake card, Ephemerate, and Skred. Sprite does not need friends to get the job done in these situations. Another deck, just outside the Top 16, took a different approach and paired Ingot Chewer with Ephemerate to nab multiple Artifacts on one 3/3 body. </span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">While decks can (and should) prepare for the mirror, there's something to be said for putting butts in seats. The Astrolabe decks do take time to set up and can have a hard time dealing with multiple threats - or one sufficiently large threat. Heroic and Stompy make sense as a way to attack these until a Stonehorn Dignitary shows up. With only two decks in the Top 32 running the rhino it was a good day to trample some birds. Still, the meta will adjust. It is almost trivially easy for these decks to run Weather the Storm - no non-Tron Astro deck ran the card this week - and build up a high enough life total that combat will not matter.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Looking to next week, black removal seems decently well positioned. Chainer's Edict and its ilk do rather nicely against Lagonna-Band Trailblazer, while not being completely dead against Stompy and Red Deck wins. Disfigure and Defile are still good cards and they allow you to potentially dodge some of the hate being throw Arcum's Astrolabe's way. Whatever you do, though, be sure to have a plan to beat the Tron Flicker Loop endgame.</span></div>
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<i style="font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif;">2019 is going to be a banner year for Pauper. I want to continue to be at the forefront of the metagame. If you like the work I do, please consider becoming a <a href="https://www.patreon.com/nerdtothecore">Patron</a>. Thank you!</i></div>
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Alexhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07097034277883199120noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4773432487889005772.post-56011385542305343572019-07-15T14:18:00.001-04:002019-07-15T14:18:33.061-04:00July 14th Pauper Challenge Winner's Metagame<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">The <a href="https://magic.wizards.com/en/articles/archive/mtgo-standings/pauper-challenge-2019-07-15">July 14th Pauper Challenge</a> had 24 copies of Arcum's Astrolabe in the Top 8 and another 16 copies in the Top 16. The card is everywhere. If you want some more of my thoughts you can check out <a href="https://twitter.com/nerdtothecore/status/1150792119893860353">this thread on Twitter</a>. </span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Blue Astro Tron won the Challenge and also finished just outside the Top 8. The deck has taking the old Ghostly Flicker engine and supplemented it with Ephemerate. Ephemerate is fantastic with Mnemonic Wall as it can get back a spell on the first half and then wall can get back the instant on the Rebound. This shrinks the engine and gives the deck an added layer of resiliency and inevitability. It also conveniently keeps a key card out of the graveyard to ignore common hate like Relic of Progenitus.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Arcum's Astrolabe has completely remade Pauper in its image. While the four of the five Tron decks run the card (and have similar lock plans for the late game), there are 12 Jeskai based midrange value decks that all lean heavily on the card to help keep seeing new cards and stitch together their mana.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Previously I had said that the rise in these decks has also given Affinity a shot in the arm. Aggressive decks like the Machine can take advantage of the set up time and prey upon slow starts. It appears as if these decks have adapted, both in construction and play style. As such Affinity did not crack the Top 16 this week. There were four aggro decks in the Top 16 - two Stompy, a Hexproof, and a Red Deck Wins.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Are people not being aggressive enough? That is a legitimate question. Playing the value game is fun and Astrolabe decks are great at seeing a ton of cards. More aggressive decks should be seeing play as a check on these strategies but they need to figure out a way to content with Weather the Storm and Moment's Peace.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Two events in and we are looking at the metagame as sorted by total Win+ - that is wins above a 4-3 record. Jeskai Trinket and Affinity are the moist popular decks, with Stompy not for behind. That being said if you combine various control Tron decks, that macro becomes the second most popular archetype. Any deck currently looking to attack the meta should have a plan to go under Tron but also be able to fight the multicolor Astrolabe decks. While I've had some success with Goblins, that deck can falter in the face of Boros. Zombies may be an answer as Shepherd of Rot is a quick clock, but may struggle in the face of Weather the Storm.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><i style="font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif;">2019 is going to be a banner year for Pauper. I want to continue to be at the forefront of the metagame. If you like the work I do, please consider becoming a <a href="https://www.patreon.com/nerdtothecore">Patron</a>. Thank you!</i></span></div>
Alexhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07097034277883199120noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4773432487889005772.post-14398689165458960192019-07-08T21:07:00.001-04:002019-07-08T21:07:28.449-04:00The July 7th Pauper Challenge Winner's Metagame<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">While we have reached the official end of <i>Modern Horizons</i> season, what with the advent of <i>Core 2020</i> and the Unification, the impact of the straight-to-Modern set continues to be felt in Pauper. One only needs to look at the <a href="https://magic.wizards.com/en/articles/archive/mtgo-standings/pauper-challenge-2019-07-08">July 7th Challenge results</a> to see that at the moment it's Arcum's Astrolabe's world and we're just living in it. There were 14 copies of the Snow Artifact in the Top 8, and another 16 in the Top 16. The ability to fix your mana and draw a card is just that good.</span><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Actually, it's probably better than that. The Astrolabe engine, whether paired with Glint Hawk and Kor Skyfisher, or with Trinket Mage (in Tron builds), or all three, provides a fairly steady stream of cards. On July 7th every there was a clean break from 16th to 17th place: everyone in the Top 16 went X-2 or better. Out of all those decks there were 30 copies of Astrolabe to help keep things moving. Combined, there were six copies of Palace Sentinels <i>and</i> Thorn of the Black Rose.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Let's put that into context. Previously Monarch was one of the driving forces in Pauper. It was a steady stream of card advantage that was hard to stop and easy to defend. A free card every turn is barely good enough in the face of Arcum's Astrolabe (at the moment). Combine that with the card's ability to subvert the mana system and it makes sense that this card is omnipresent.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">It also makes some sense as to why Affinity is resurgent. After a long while on the sidelines the machine is back on top. Winning this Challenge (and last week's Playoff) the archetype is putting up some gaudy numbers. No doubt aided by the London Mulligan helping to ensure smoother draws, the deck has the ability to Just Win thanks to Fling and Temur Battle Rage. Skred is great at killing a 4/4, but much worse at killing 8 of them. The result is the Affinity is climbing the ladder and is ready, willing, and able to steamroll anyone who takes too long to set up.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Given all of this I think Gorilla Shaman is well positioned next week. At the same time I think Tron decks should be packing Shattering Pulse - Ancient Grudge is fine but barely replaces itself in the wake of Astrolabe and Prophetic Prism - and decks that can support Spell Pierce probably should add some copies. Stopping the first Astrolabe can be key in slowing down these decks and that cannot be understated.</span></div>
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<i style="font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif;">2019 is going to be a banner year for Pauper. I want to continue to be at the forefront of the metagame. If you like the work I do, please consider becoming a <a href="https://www.patreon.com/nerdtothecore">Patron</a>. Thank you!</i></div>
Alexhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07097034277883199120noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4773432487889005772.post-37826332513136793822019-07-04T15:35:00.001-04:002019-07-04T15:35:14.783-04:00The June 30th Format Playoff<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">The second Pauper Playoff took place on <a href="https://magic.wizards.com/en/articles/archive/mtgo-standings/pauper-format-playoff-2019-07-01">June 30th</a>. These playoffs qualify high finishers for a Championship, which in turn will qualify a player for the <i>Magic Online</i> Championship Series.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">The Playoff was won by Affinity, which was one of two decks not running Arcum's Astrolabe in the Top 8. Affinity has had a strong season with two other Top 8 finishes. The strategy has experienced a resurgence in the wake of the recent bans. Affinity has always been a powerful option but when there are too many cheap counters running around it loses some luster. Now with the advent of Blue Elemental Blast one wonders if Affinity will see its stock decline since there will be more sideboard hate for Atog, Fling, and Temur Battle Rage.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">The story of this playoff, and really the format since the release of <i>Modern Horizons</i> has been Arcum's Astrolabe. Not only has this card easily slotted into existing Kor Skyfisher strategies, it has also allowed these decks to expand their metagame share. At half the price of Prophetic Prism, Arcum's Astrolabe is a one mana cantrip that nearly any deck can run that has the upside of fixing your mana. While it does come with a very real cost - that is a slot in your deck - the upside is massive, especially when paired with Skyfisher and Glint Hawk. On top of all that it is not hard to get value out of Astrolabe since once it hits the battlefield it immediately replaces itself. The end result is that this card has become a format staple and is pushing Pauper in a specific direction.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">The mana system is integral to the way <i>Magic</i> works. If you want to have better mana you need to run fewer colors. While various non-Basic Lands help to mitigate this almost all of them (as of late) come with a cost. Arcum's Astrolabe changes the nature of mana in Pauper in that as long as you have Snow-Covered Basics, you can cast nearly anything. The consequence of this is that Arcum's Astrolabe decks are started to resemble each other. They are becoming three and four color "good stuff" decks and are taking up a decent chunk of the metagame. Non-Astrolabe decks are relegated to linear strategies - Affinity Burn, Elves, Stompy - and are creating a metagame of beatdown against value. </span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">If Astrolabe is the current focal point of the metagame what can be done? Qasali Pridemage is a decent card but asks quite a bit when it comes to mana cost, as does Tin-Street Hooligan (unless you are yourself an Astrolabe deck). Hearth Kami and Torch Fiend might be good enough but then you are leaving yourself behind. It might be that Spellstutter Sprite is just the answer we are looking for, provided it can stay on the board long enough to matter.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">All of this may be for nothing. The recent addition of all commons means that Mystic Remora is coming to play. An early Remora could put a damper on the plan of "recast Astrolabe to get ahead". And we are still early enough in <i>Modern Horizons'</i> life-cycle that an answer may be uncovered.</span><br />
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<i style="font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif;">2019 is going to be a banner year for Pauper. I want to continue to be at the forefront of the metagame. If you like the work I do, please consider becoming a <a href="https://www.patreon.com/nerdtothecore">Patron</a>. Thank you!</i></div>
Alexhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07097034277883199120noreply@blogger.com0