December 23 Pauper Challenge Breakdown

I thought long and hard about what to write about this week. The December 23 Pauper Challenge was dominated by Dimir Delver. This came on the heels of an article I wrote for ChannelFireball that questioned the place of Gush in the format. Needless to say the article generated a ton of comments in various different places. Even though you get told to never read the comments, I read every one.

Before I go on I am going to say this: if you want people to keep creating Pauper content please treat them kindly. I have stopped posting in certain places simply because the legitimate criticism is buried behind personal insults. I'm sure some people reading this are going to think I'm being thin skinned.  That may be true, but look at where Pauper content creators are posting their work and where they've stopped.

Ultimate Masters

One of the most frequently repeated comments about Gush was that there was a recency bias. At the time of publishing there had been two Ultimate Masters events where Foil was legal and Dimir Delver had done exceptionally well in those two events. How could anyone make a point about the long term health of the format based upon such a small sample size?

I understand the allure of Gush. It is a supremely powerful card and one that is a ton of fun to cast. The above chart comes from Hour of Devastation season. Over that entire span Boros Monarch and Stompy had the most Top 8s and Izzet Delver, a high profile Gush deck, performed below expectations when it comes to Top 8s. But two of the Top 5 decks and three of the Top 10 were Gush decks that performed above their expected Top 8 ratio.

After Hour of Devastation comes Ixalan. These charts all represent decks that had at least 2% of the Top 32 metagame volume. Again, Boros Monarch did exceptionally well in the short season but again there were two Top 10 Gush decks. To be fair there were two other Gush decks that performed below expectation.

Iconic Masters is where things started to turn. The four main Gush decks at the time - Delver, Izzet Blitz, Izzet Delver, and Tribe Combo - all over performed their expectations. The thing to note here is that the traditional Gush predators - Boros Monarch, Elves, and Stompy - are at the bottom of the chart.

Rivals of Ixalan season had three Gush decks in the Top 5 with Stompy performing over expectation as well. Even though Tribe Combo faltered a bit it still won a Challenge. Gush decks took up one-third of all over-performing decks that season, by far their best share to that time.

25th Anniversary Masters saw Izzet Blitz fall off the top of the charts and had Izzet Delver perform relatively poorly. Still in this short season, Gush decks won two of five challenges and had half of all Top 8 appearances. Boros Monarch surged to the top while Stompy and Elves both languished.

 

Reports of Izzet Delver's demise were unfounded during Dominaria season. The deck performed absurdly well, earning four Top 8s above expectation. Delver also had a great run, as did Elves and Stompy. Tribe Combo and Izzet Blitz both performed about as well as the should have, conforming rather nicely to a T8 delver of 0.

Over the summer, Core Set 2019 gave Pauper its best performing non-Gush deck with Elves. An out-sized portion of Top 8 appearances combined with a win. Despite Elves in the top slot and Boros Monarch performing exceptionally well, Delver - mono-blue Delver - had the second best season on the back of three challenge victories. Izzet and Dimir Delver both had solid spans as well, with Tribe and Blitz bringing up the rear.

And that brings us to Guilds of Ravnica. Dimir Delver had the best overall season and the third best Top 8 delta in my tracking. Tribe Combo had a good run as well and the new Gush sniper - Boros Bully - coming in third. Izzet Faeries burst on to the scene as another Gush deck and cannibalized some share from its Delver running cousin. Gush killers Stompy, Elves, and Monarch took a hit.

Now we can look at all of these results and see a few things. Gush decks have consistently done well. Even when these decks have fewer Top 8 appearances than their Win+ indicate, they still make the Top 8 often. Decks often cited as being good against Delver builds cycle in and out of vogue, often struggling to combat the latest top Gush build. For the better part of two years, a Gush deck has been either number one or number two.

There are some who say that Augur of Bolas should be banned. I can see the arguments there. However at the end of the day Augur's power isn't inherent to itself but rather a byproduct of the other powerful blue cards it can find. The advent of Augur of Bolas helped to supercharge Gush decks and much of its power is tied to finding Gush (and Ponder/Preordain/Brainstorm). I've seen arguments against Foil, saying that Gush was fine until Foil came along, but I like to think the above charts show something different. 

I want to be wrong. I want a deck to rise up and prove that Gush can be allowed to stay. That a card so powerful as to be restricted in Vintage and banned in Legacy is just fine in Pauper. 

Almost two years in and I'm still waiting. 

December 16 Pauper Challenge Breakdown

Art by Donato Giancola; Source

December 16th gave us the second Pauper Challenge of the Ultimate Masters season. Stompy won the day in the extremely capable hands of _Dissonance_. The most notable thing about the victory was not that Stompy won but rather that the long time Stompy grinder had not moved away from Elephant Guide and towards Wild Mongrel. Over the past few weeks this change back to the Savage [D]astard himself has been a refreshing innovation in the green deck's composition. Mongrel has the ability to win games on its own and with the relative dearth of Chainer's Edict effects, Elephant Guide makes less sense. Still, being able to go toe-to-toe with Gurmag Angler has its advantages.

On that note, let's get to the rest of the results. Dimir Delver had a fantastic day with three different pilots making the Top 8. Nine of the 13 decks that made the Top 32 did so with winning records and the deck held the lone 6-0 at the end of the Swiss rounds. 

Numbers like this are reminiscent of the early stage domination of Izzet Delver.

I do think that Dimir Delver is a fantastic deck but it is likely not as good as these results seem to indicate. Rather the format is going to take time to adjust, specifically to Gurmag Angler in concert with Foil. Journey to Nowhere used to be the full stop answer to Angler. Now that Foil is in the picture, the opportunity to present Angler with multiple pieces of protection is far more likely and can render Journey less effective. 

What is the answer? I am not sure. In order to operate around countermagic it appears as if instants are best positioned to fight Dimir Delver. Cards like Vapor Snag are not permanent answers but they can help buy time. The issue is that no matter what you are spending to take down Angler you are likely trading down in mana thanks to Delve. Gurmag Angler might be the best it has ever been right now.

This chart is, in part, why I am not sounding the alarm on Dimir Delver just yet. While it has been far and away the most popular deck thus far in the short season, it is performing beneath its Top 8 expectation. I would not put too much stock in this until we get four Challenges in, especially given its volume, but we can see that Boros Tokens and monarch are both performing above expectation. Given the strength of Dimir Delver that should be noted. Let us also press 'f' for our currently fallen comrade in Izzet Delver. You had a fantastic 21 month run.

The elephant in the room for the next month will be Gush. January 21st signals the next update to the Banned list. While Foil is the new kid on the block, Gush is one reason why the pitch counter is so strong. Gush helps to mitigate the drawback while also being the backbone of the decks that want Foil most of all. Not to tease too much but I go into more detail in my upcoming article on ChannelFireball, so be sure to check this out.

Assorted musings:

• Mono Green Tokens looks to be the real deal. I think there's a lot to be done with that deck.
• Tethmos High Priest is clearly a powerful card that is still looking for the best shell.
• I am interested in Rakdos Monarch as a counter to Dimir Delver. Terminate is an attractive spell if it resolves.