January 27 Pauper Challenge Breakdown

Conventional wisdom holds that Pauper has a triangular metagame. Gush decks beat Tron decks which beat Monarch decks which beat Gush decks. Considering the early surge of Dimir Delver in the wake of Foil, the recent rise of Boros flavored Monarch decks made sense. In light of the lack of bans many believed that Tron was due for a resurgence. On January 27th, we did not see that.

Instead what we saw was the same two decks rise to the top: Boros Monarch and Dimir Delver. These two decks out performed everything else in the challenge. Boros Monarch had the lone 7-0 and Dimir Delver won the whole thing (and place four players in the Top 8). 

What is most surprising though is the utter lack of Tron results. There was one deck that finished 5-2 or better and it made the Top 8. Yet this was supposed to be Tron's coming out party. What happened?

It could be that there was a lot of Tron in the event but that they were beat by Gush variants. It could be that Tron just isn't very good at the moment. 

My recent experience in the leagues has led me to believe that the recent Tron decks are not suited for the current metagame.

Tron is a powerful mana engine. Over the years it has been used to power out various top end threats like Fangren Marauder or Ulamog's Crusher. The biggest shift in Tron in the past few years was the addition of Pulse of Murasa. This let the deck shift from simply going over the top to being able to operate as a Mulldrifter fueled control deck. This build, in turn, served as the foundation for Tron decks post-Modern Masters 2017 and Dinrova Horror. Looping Ghostly Flicker through Horror became a legitimate win condition. However this required a lot of time to set up and with so few open slots - Tron requires far more than thye 12 spots for the lands themselves -the deck became almost all draw and delay tactics. That doesn't work well in a field full of interactive elements and Foil. If Tron wants to rise again it needs to figure out a way to not only win the game but also how to fight wars on the stack. That's hard to do.

Which is part of why we look to have a two pronged metagame for the foreseeable future - Gush and Monarch locked in a battle while Tron, Elves, and whatever else people feel like running vie for third place.

I could be wrong. Tron could come back with a vengeance in a week. The next month could be a golden age for Pauper with untold innovation. I would love nothing more than this. But I just don't see it happening.

2019 is going to be a banner year for Pauper. I want to continue to be at the forefront of the metagame. If you like the work I do, please consider becoming a Patron. Thank you!