April 14 Pauper Challenge Winner's Metagame Breakdown

April 14th featured the first Pauper Challenge to use the new London Mulligan. Let's see how that turned out.

Oh.

To be fair this was a relatively small challenge with 69 players. The last two slots of the Top 32 had 3-4 records (we see you down there Burn). Looking at solely positive Win+, 21 points were awarded. Gush accounted for 11 points; Monarch 7. At this point it is hard to call Tron a pillar of the format due to the sheer dominance of the other two. Sure, it will put up results, but Tron itself does not draw you cards.

In many ways Pauper has been reduced to a format of who can have the most cards in hand. Without Planeswalkers there are precious few ways to generate any form of persistent card (or board) advantage. Seeing more cards is obviously good as it givens you more chances to find those with a greater impact. However when formats simple become about who can draw more cards, then drawing cards is really the only thing you want to be doing. 

Let's look at the three most successful archetypes that do not lean on one of the pillars. Burn doesn't care about seeing more cards because it only needs to see seven spells to win the game. Still it gets extra looks with Needle Drop and Gitaxian Probe. Hexproof is also redundant and while it doesn't need to amass a large hand, it does need to see plenty of cards and uses Abundant Growth and Unbridled Growth to that end. And Elves, well, Distant Melody and Lead the Stampede are very strong cards.

8 appearances needed to meet the 12 event threshold

Gavin Verhey has described Pauper as a format ruled by 2-for-1s. It makes sense. In a world without a ton of ways to gain a massive advantage, accruing multiple small edges starts to add up over a few turns. It's a reason so many people feel helpless in the face of Ninja of the Deep Hours - two hits and you're behind. Augur of Bolas gets a ton of press as a 2-for-1 that blocks well. But these pale when compared to the persistent power of Monarch. If you can protect it you get an extra card for free every turn. Gush might be a one time burst of cards but when paired with powerful cantrips you can ride that advantage until you find the next Gush. Even though Tron is not a card advantage engine in it of itself, it enables the ability to "draw" fresh copies of your key spell every turn thanks to Ghostly Flicker and Mnemonic Wall.

None of these things are bad in isolation. To me it represents a sign that the format needs some attention. In my opinion games of Magic should not come down to who has drawn more cards. Yes, there are games where both players draw a ton and sometimes the one with 12 cards left in their library beats the one with 10, but when someone has seen 20 cards to your 15 the gap feels that much larger.

That is not to say that there shouldn't be a way to draw cards in Pauper. The format needs a persistent source of card advantage to give midrange and control decks a real shot. Still if Pauper stays this course I don't think the format grows and improves.

So what can be done? Short of printing multiple cheap engines in every color, I am not sure. At some point the best way to add to the card pool will be to subtract from it.

2019 is going to be a banner year for Pauper. I want to continue to be at the forefront of the metagame. If you like the work I do, please consider becoming a Patron. Thank you!