March 10 Winner's Metagame Breakdown

The story of the March 11 Pauper Challenge was that there was a Banned and Restricted List announcement the next day. And nothing changed.

After a week with a relatively diverse Top 8, both online and in paper, there was hope that trend would continue.

Sigh.

The Top 8 was all known and established archetypes, with four Gush Delver variants (plus one more that has the same shell and no Delver of Secrets), a Gush combo deck, and two Monarch decks. Exacerbating the distinction between the haves and the have-nots the Top 16 had another five Gush decks, two Monarch decks, and a lone Tron deck. While it can be said that the Top 8 Tribe list and Top 16 Gush deck did innovate - High Priest of Tethmos in Tribe and actual factual removal and Counterspell in Dinrova Tron - these are not format defining changes. Rather they are iterations on known strategies and archetypes in an attempt to get an edge in a well established metagame.

There's nothing wrong with that. It's just what it is - people taking advantage of stagnation. And there's nothing bad about that either. But this hardly represents the dynamic and robust metagame that the MCQ Top 8 seemed to herald.

The chart that follows takes every deck that made Top 8. Those shaded have fewer than 5 appearances (where 2% of the volume equates to just over 5 appearances).

There have been 64 decks to make the Top 8 in Ravnica Allegiance season. Almost 36% of those have been aggro-control Gush decks. Add in combo Gush and you that number bumps up over 39%. Just under 30% of the Top 8 decks were Monarch builds. Burn, in two quick weeks, amassed around 11% of the Top 8 share but dropped off after that. Tron decks have under 5% of all Top 8s. 

But let's go back to those first numbers. Nearly 70% of the Top 8s have been earned by two defining strategies. It's awesome when you see Ruin Processor in 18th place, but when you look at the fact the deck went 4-3 in its lone appearance some of that sheen comes off. How many times this season has a new deck emerged only to be gone the next week?

How many times over the past year?

Innovation is absolutely possible. Sustained innovation that heralds change is harder to achieve. Such moments have to come from new, high power cards entering the format or significant ones leaving. Considering the lack of action on the ban list as of late I am hoping that Modern Horizons has commons that will have an impact.

2019 is going to be a banner year for Pauper. I want to continue to be at the forefront of the metagame. If you like the work I do, please consider becoming a Patron. Thank you!