Monday, September 16, 2019

Examining the September 15th Pauper Playoff

There was not a Pauper Challenge this past weekend. Instead there was an invite only Format Playoff. The result of the tournament is noteworthy - Elves over Eldrazi Green - but before we do I want to take a look at the Top 16. 

Unlike Challenges, Playoffs only provide the Top 16 decks. Out of these 16 decks, 8 were Jeskai featuring an Ephemerate engine and two were Tron featuring the same engine - 62.5% of the Top 16. When looking at Win+ the Jeskai decks accounted for 41.67% of all Win+ and when you add the Tron decks, Ephemerate engine decks accounted for more than 58% of the total volume of Win+ in the Top 16. Compare this to Stompy - the next most popular deck (or archetype) with 2 appearances, which accounted for 16.67% of all Win+. It is not that the Ephemerate engine decks are better than the rest of the format, it is that they are significantly better and are forcing nearly every other archetype to the fringes. 

Now, as to this event. Elves won the day. In the Top 8 it had to take down two different Jeskai decks, packing a grand total of three Electrickery and one Swirling Sandstorm. Even with that, Federusher came prepared for sweepers with Wrap in Vigor and Magnify, as well was running the maximum allowable copies of Lead the Stampede and Winding Way. They even packed a copy of Vivien's Grizzly in their sideboard. Needless to say they did not want to get blown out. Federusher also came ready for the mirror with two copies of Viridian Longbow main in addition to a Trinket Mage to fetch the equipment.

Federusher had to be Ponderouscz in the finals, with the latter player also making their way through two Jeskai decks. They were running Eldrazi Green - a mono green ramp deck that wants to resolve huge threats early while blowing up the opponent's lands. Normally a threat to Tron, Ponderouscz made some changes to help bulwark the deck against Jeskai. 
Traditionally Eldrazi Green has leaned on the interaction of Arbor Elf and Wild Growth/Utopia Sprawl to generate its mana abundance. Historically this has been a fragile plan thanks to haha dead Elf. Ponderouscz build in redundancy with Nest Invader and Kozilek's Predator. While not as explosive as Arbor Elf, the Eldrazi Spawn provide an insurance policy that can help cast key spells. Ponderouscz also ran the full four copies of Entourage of Trest to keep the cards flowing. While they did not include any sweepers, it could be trivially easy for the deck to include copies of Electrickery or Swirling Sandstorm and set Utopia Sprawl to red in games two and three.

The success of Eldrazi Green points to Jeskai's greed. The deck centers on four and five mana haymaker plays but tries to get away on 19 or 20 land. This is an exploit for land destruction strategies. While Jeskai can easily handle any threat Eldrazi Green can present it has a harder time doing so when its mana is constrained. 

Can this strategy persist? Unclear. Eldrazi Green thrives when it is on the play. It also has a hard time against Burn and other decks that can pressure a life total while not needing a ton of mana. Additionally, if Elves remains a popular archetype Eldrazi Green could be in for a world of hurt thanks to Quirion Ranger. 

Still, it's nice to live in a world where this deck was a good call for an event.

2019 is going to be a banner year for Pauper. I want to continue to be at the forefront of the metagame. If you like the work I do, please consider becoming a Patron. Thank you!

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