Why There Should Be Bans on October 7th

Yesterday I ended my entry on this blog by saying that Arcum's Astrolabe, Ephemerate, and the Tron mana engine should be banned. Today I am going to do my best to explain my position on the matter. This is going to be replacing my usual Patron's Only post for the week, but considering the subject matter I did not want to restrict access.

Similarly I am want to keep this on my blog because a lot of this is my opinion. While it is informed by data, this post is going to trend a little more negative than I'd like. I have heard a ton of feedback for I am endeavoring to be more positive on my more widely published pieces.

Before I go any further I am going to ask those of you reading to be civil in your comments. People who disagree with you are not crybabies or whiners. If you are reading this chances are you are like me and you want to see Pauper grow, succeed, and thrive. While we may see different routes to those ends we can at least agree on the end goal: a vibrant Pauper. 

This chart represents the online Pauper metagame, starting with the July 7th Challenge and running through the Challenge on September 8th. It is inclusive of the Mythic Championship Qualifier. It takes into account 352 decks from the Top 32s. While this is not a statistically significant sample size, it is fairly indicative of the metagame going back to the release of Core 2020. In that time, Jeskai decks have accounted for nearly 25% of all Top 32 lists - 87 decks to be exact - and 30 Top 8 slots (that's over 34%). If you are a regular reader you know I like the Win+ metric - something that measures wins above an X-3 record. Jeskai decks have accounted for nearly 33% of the Win+ share (indicated by the red trend line in the graph). All of these metrics seem to indicate the format is out of balance. Jeskai is defining the format it is dominating. 

What does a healthy format look like? A lot of this is going to be subjective but to me a healthy format is one that is dynamic. While there may be a Best Deck it should not be so potent that it is immune to shifts in the metagame. At the height of its power even post-Cloud of Faeries Delver had bad matchups that approached the game from different angles. By comparison the best way to beat an Ephemerate deck is to race. 

If we want to talk numbers, I think averaging between 12% and 15% of the top of the metagame is acceptable. Achieving a delta of between 3% and 5% of actual volume and weighted volume is likely ideal. The current delta for the top macro-archetype in Pauper currently sits at 8.24%.

So how do we restore parity? Right now the best way is to take cards out of the format. The current crop of Throne of Eldraine spoilers continue the trend of role players as opposed to metagame shapers. To be clear this is fine - Pauper is defined by cards released at commons, not a wish list of high power cards. 

One thing I am not going to do this time around is advocate for a ban on the Monarch mechanic. While I do feel that it has no place in two-player Magic it has also never existed in a format where beatdown decks did not have to compete with Daze. Daze was such a huge beating against decks that wanted to present two-drop threats that it helped stifle aggro. The fact it was often paired with Augur of Bolas did not help things either. While it may be true that the Monarch is too good for Pauper, I would like to see what a deck like Stompy could do if it did not have to contend with Daze on top of cards like Kor Skyfisher and Augur of Bolas. In this world is the Monarch a dominant force or one that is constrained by the inherent risk of the mechanic? While I am inclined to believe the former if the Monarch could survive and be a viable option without wapring the meta, I am all for keeping it around.

The case for banning Arcum's Astrolabe, as I see it, is as follows: it subverts the mana system. Prior to Astrolabe the format did not have great mana. While it was the best it had ever been between Khans of Tarkir Gain Lands and the Ravnica Block Bounce Lands, running more than two colors and reliably casting your spells was a bit of a stretch. Astrolabe did not just make the mana for decks better, it gave every one of those decks access to a card draw package. One reason to dip into multiple colors is to gain access to powerful effects outside your main chroma. In the world of Astrolabe this is trivial and has allowed four-color blue decks to rule the day. Make no mistake- all those Kor Skyfisher decks are blue decks and like all mana fixing in Pauper blue is able to make best use of Astrolabe. 

Many Pauper players love Astrolabe, likening it to Fetch Lands. They make decks more consistent and make it easier to cast your spells. This is valid. At the same time when the mana in a format gets too good decks start to resemble one another. While there may be multiple varieties of Jeskai out there, they all run the same core cards. Aside from a few flex slots - Trinket Mage vs Spellstutter Sprite for example - what is the actual difference in these decks?

Is this metagame diversity? 

Ephemerate looks innocuous. Blink strategies have been around the format since before it was sanctioned. While Ghostly Flicker has helped to power out some game ending loops it required multiple cards - Mnemonic Wall and another card - to enable the victory formation. Even then many players felt that Ghostly Flicker was too powerful to keep around. 

I was not one of them. When I saw Ephemerate I thought it would be a neat card but not one that broke things in half. 

I was wrong.

Whereas Ghostly Flicker requires two friends to do work, Ephemerate only needs one. Targeting Mnemonic Wall or Archaeomancer with Ephemerate means you get the best spell out of your graveyard and then you can get back the Ephemerate and start the process over again. Pair Ephemerate with Mulldrifter to draw six cards for four total mana. It is not the effect of Ephemerate as much as the cost. At a single mana it is trivial to set up a turn where you can enact the loop with your shields up. Ephemerate also can store itself in exile, meaning that traditional graveyard hate is less useful against the card. Ephemerate has had nearly four months approaching the summit of Pauper, let's have the card retire in peace.

The last card I want to see sunset is three cards - Urza's Mine, Urza's Power Plant, and Urza's Tower. When a deck has access to the best spells in the format thanks the best possible mana - Astrolabe and Prophetic Prism - and has a surplus of resources, it can run roughshod over the metagame. If Tron was simply being used to power out Fangren Marauder and Rolling Thunder it would be safe to keep around. However Tron's main use these days is as part of a prison deck that can lock people out of interacting as early as turn four. Unlike prison strategies in other formats there are very few natural foils available in Pauper. The pieces can be stored in the graveyard or exile and thanks to a Mystical Teachings toolbox they can be retrieved and protected with ease. 

While there are fair applications of Tron, there is no path forward for including powerful cards that does not end with Tron running them and doing so, casting twice as many per turn thanks to 1+1+1 = 7. 

Tron also does work in stifling other end game decks. Slower midrange and control decks cannot keep up with a deck that simply out-manas them. As such, as long as Tron remains in the format these decks will tend towards Tron. One high profile Tron pilot has said the only reason the decks isn't dominating online is because of how physically taxing it is to pilot correctly.

So what happens if these bans take place? I hesitate to speculate too much. Boros Monarch and Stompy likely remain as solid options but I also imagine a new control deck will emerge and Familiar combo will see a resurgence. Regardless of all this I hope that October 7th ends with a healthier, more balance Pauper metagame.

2019 is going to be a banner year for Pauper. I want to continue to be at the forefront of the metagame. If you like the work I do, please consider becoming a Patron. Thank you!