Tuesday, October 15, 2019

October 13th Pauper Challenge Breakdown

The October 13th Pauper Challenge brought us everything we have come to expect from the format. Jeskai was the most popular deck and performed better that the field. Arcum's Astrolabe was everywhere in the Top 8 with 24 out of 32 possible copies being played. Unlike other Challenges from last season, Jeskai came out on top- for the second time since Throne of Eldraine was released.

There is more to the Top 8, of course. Two aggressive Boros decks both made it to the elimination rounds, as did Affinity and Boros Monarch. Three of these decks ran Galvanic Blast while one ran Rally the Peasants as a force multiplier. This tracks with what people have been saying about the Pauper metagame for weeks now - if you aren't playing Ephemerate decks you have to be positioned to race them.

Looking at the remained for the Top 32, only three decks don't cleanly fall into this cap - the two Orzhov Monarch and the Skyfisher Tron. Even the Blue Zoo deck maxed out on copies of Sunken City in an attempt to Crusade their way to victory. A top 16 finish is nothing to scoff at but it will need to put up a few more results before the deck can be mentioned in the same breath as something like Red Deck Wins, let alone a true metagame staple.


The above chart is every deck that has at least two appearances (which is around 2% volume) or a Top 8 this season. Pay special attention to that last column. It weighs a decks volume - that is how many times it appears in the Top 32 - against its' Win+ volume - that is its share of wins at an X-2 record or better. You expect the very best decks to "punch above their weight". Jeskai is doing much better than punching above its weight - it's suplexing a sumo wrestler. It's also twice as popular as the next most voluminous archetype and still manages to account for almost 40% of all wins at X-2 or better. 

In the words of some mid-90s commercial, that's domination homes.

2019 is going to be a banner year for Pauper. I want to continue to be at the forefront of the metagame. If you like the work I do, please consider becoming a Patron. Thank you!

1 comment:

RabidWallaby said...

I knew that Ephemerate decks were a huge part of the meta, and a big reason as to why I've shifted my interest away from Pauper lately, but this is staggering.