January 20 Pauper Challenge Breakdown

Welcome to Ravnica Allegiance season! Meet the new boss, same as the old boss. Delver won the day in the hands of PauloCabral_br and despite not running Augur of Bolas, the pilot had no problem taking out the lone Stompy deck to make the Top 8 in the Quarterfinals. Then the mono-blue player dispatched two Boros Monarch decks on their way to victory. 

The Top 8 had some very interesting pieces of tech. First, that same Stompy player eschewed Elephant Guide in favor of Moldervine Cloak. Entropy263 had four copies of Fire//Ice in their Devious Cover-Up control deck. And the winner moved back to Spire Golem in Delver. This makes some amount of sense thanks to Foil. Foil is very good at protecting a singular threat and the Delver decks of old had Spire Golem act as that threat. In this new era it would follow that the old standard would return.

This first challenge showed that despite the recent surge of Boros Bully, Boros Monarch might still beat the red-white deck to beat. Three Top 8 finishes, and it would have had a 1:1 Win+ to Volume ratio if not for the 32nd place list, which went 3-4. 8 total Win+ points in 12 total appearances puts Boros decks ahead of the curve this season.

But don't sleep on Delver-Gush decks. Dimir Delver had a very strong showing as well - better than Bully in the same number of appearances. Delver, outside of the winner, faltered, with that lone Top 8 appearance being the only 5-2 or better finish. 

Last week Kendra Smith made the case to ban Gush, Ghostly Flicker, and all the Monarch cards. Despite the fact that nothing got banned today, Kendra played prognosticator rather well.

Fifteen of the Top 16 decks ran one of the cards Kendra called out. Her eye for the metagame is keen and just because Play Design didn't act doesn't mean her article was in the wrong. Give that woman some dap. You can check out my thoughts on the lack of bans here.

Moving forward, Gush and Monarch continue to have a target on their heads. If you are trying to attack the metagame I would look for another way to generate card advantage. You ideally want something that can keep pace with those two pillars in terms of card economy that does not sacrifice board position or force you into bad trades.

2019 is going to be a banner year for Pauper. I want to continue to be at the forefront of the metagame. If you like the work I do, please consider becoming a Patron. Thank you!

January 13 Pauper Challenge Breakdown

TL; DR: I'm starting a Patreon.

The January 13th Pauper Challenge is in the books and thus ends Ultimate Masters season with Ravnica Allegiance hitting the digital shelves this week. Mathonical won the day with Elves, defeating Burn, Boros Bully, and Boros Monarch in the Top 8. Three total copies of Spidersilk Armor had to have helped, as well as access to two copies of Hydroblast in the sideboard.

Boros decks did exceptionally well on the day, earning 9 total Win+ points across eight appearances. Base Dimir Gush decks were even money: five Win+ across five appearances. There were eight different archetypes in the Top 8 and 15 archetypes across the Top 32 if you split up Monarch and Bully Boros as well as Dimir and Esper Delver.

When you break the Top 32 down into the pillars, things shift just a bit. There were 12 Monarch decks, 9 Gush decks, and four Tron decks. 

The other two Top 8 decks were go-wide green decks with a huge but - they had sweeper insurance. The very best go-wide decks have tons of fragile creatures but cards like Spidersilk Armor and the triple lords of Slivers can make it harder for Electrickery to do the dirty work.

The season ends with a 2% threshold of 3.84 appearances - rounded up that means only decks with at least four Top 32 finishes will be featured. To the shock of everyone, Dimir Delver and Boros Bully are at the top of the chart, each performing 1.5 Top 8s above expectation.

So what does this mean in the grand scheme of things? Well, we can't ignore the fact that both Grixis Delver and Esper Delver got one Top 8 each, as well as two more Top 8s for Dimir Exhume. This means that base-blue/black Gush decks earned a total of 18 Top 8s. Meanwhile, combining Boros Bully and Monarch you get a total of 14 Top 8s.

Dimir Delver defined this six event season. The format has adjusted to handle threats both large and small - Angler and Insectile - and is catching on on how to handle the hordes of tokens spewed out by Bully. Incidentally, Tribe Combo had a fairly poor season all things considered. Given the abundance of powerful removal it makes sense that this deck has taken a hit.

And so ends another season dominated by Gush and Monarch. Going into Ravnica Allegiance I would be on one of these two decks. If not, I would consider running Hexproof. With Chainer's Edict removal all but absent form the top of the metagame, putting a ton of pants on a Bogle seems like a good idea.

With that out of the way, I want to talk about my new Patreon. Simply put, 2019 is going to be a banner year for Pauper and I want to continue to bring you content like these breakdowns. I also want to do so much more and give you deeper insights into my thought process and how I approach the metagame. Given the amount I want to do, I want to be sure there is an invested audience. So this Patreon is an experiment that I hope works out. These weekly breakdowns won't stop, but Patrons will get access to some additional forums and perks. If you have questions about the Patreon please feel free to reach out to me on Twitter. Regardless of whether or not you sign up, I hope you come along for the exciting ride that Pauper in 2019 is sure to be!

January 6 Pauper Challenge Breakdown

The January 6 Pauper Challenge showed that Boros Bully is the other big bad to Dimir Delver. The go-wide strategy earned was one Win+ point shy of the monster under the bed but did so in three fewer appearances. Journey to Nowhere is a solid removal spell and the ability to consistently chump block Gurmag Angler cannot be underestimated.

It is also nice to see the rise of Rakdos Monarch. Called it. Terminate does a good job of killing singular threats and the addition of Arc Lightning and Crypt Rats gives the deck some game against hordes of angry birds. 

Still the deck has some problems to overcome. The threats it can present are anemic - Chittering Rats is not as scary as it has been in the past - and without Gurmag Angler the deck has trouble closing out games. In many ways the deck is reminiscent of Dimir Alchemy in that it runs plenty of good cards but can struggle when trying to actually win the game. These decks may want to shift to a Mono Black Control shell, using red only for Terminate and Pyroblast, giving another avenue to win through Gray Merchant of Asphodel. Alternatively, they could incorporate Pestilence or maybe Sultai Scavenger. I'm saying, it has options.

Still, it may not matter. We are five challenges deep into Ultimate Masters seasons and the stratification of the metagame is only increasing. Out of 40 decks to make Top 8, 18 of those have been Gush decks (13 of those were Dimir Delver - 1 was Grixis Delver). The next most popular pillar is Monarch with 12 total Top 8s (one fewer than Dimir Delver). Tron decks, considered by many to be a blight upon the format, have amassed four total Top 8s - that's one more Top 8 than the Burning-Tree Emissary decks.

This problem isn't going to solve itself. Spoiler season for Standard legal sets are yielding less fruit and it isn't design's fault. Rather, as the card pool grows it becomes harder and harder for new cards to find purchase as they are almost always going to be a worse version of a card that already exists. Relying on downshifts isn't healthy either as what makes it to common is completely arbitrary and depends on the needs of the specific set.

The 2% threshold for making it to the leaderboard this week was three appearances. Boros Bully has edged out Dimir Delver for the lead, and these two are getting ready to lap the field.  

December 30th Pauper Challenge Breakdown

The final Challenge of 2018 showed exactly how much can change in a year. At the start of 2018. Pauper was dominated by Boros Monarch and Izzet Delver. And as the page turns to 2019, a new Delver variant and new Boros deck have turned the format on its ear.

I'm only being slightly sarcastic. While there has been some serious innovation in the last 365 days, the best two decks at the moment and variants of decks that have been successful for years. This is the way of non-rotating formats. Inertia is real and it takes more than one or two new cards to upset the order of things. However as we dig deeper into these results a few things become clear. First, Dimir Delver is perceived to be the threat of the format. Despite some saying that the deck is overrated, decks did adjust to the threat. We saw more copies of Journey to Nowhere, maindeck copies of Relic of Progenitus, and an increase in the prevalence of Pyroblast.

No deck is unbeatable, especially when hate is everywhere. But despite all this there were three copies of Dimir Delver in the Top 8. Another copy should have made it over Dinrova Tron, except that player apparently dropped from the event between the final round of Swiss and the Quarterfinals.

How popular was Pyroblast? The card made appearances in 15 sideboards. In two of those instances, there were maindeck copies as well. All told there were ten decks with access to four Pyroblasts after Game One and another four with access to three. It isn't uncommon for sideboard bullets to make their ways into maindecks in unhealthy metagames to deal with problematic cards - one only needs to look at Vintage and Legacy to see some examples. 

This is certainly exploitable. You can forgo stack control entirely and dodge both Pyroblast and Hydroblast. Doing so puts you at a disadvantage however - every deck in the Top 8 had access to some form of stack control. 

When a format locks you in to playing either red or blue, there may be something wrong with the format.

The threshold for 2% this week rounds up to three appearances. Despite not making a Top 32 last week Stompy holds on to the third spit. Still, Dimir Delver and Boros Bully are half a Top 8 clear of the remaining top decks. As more attention gets paid to Pauper, especially with a slot in the Magic Online Championship on the line, the chances of this remaining the status quo diminishes.

Pauper is at a crossroads. It can either remain a small community happy to exist in its corner, or it can flourish beyond our borders. 

I think you all know which side I fall on.

December 23 Pauper Challenge Breakdown

I thought long and hard about what to write about this week. The December 23 Pauper Challenge was dominated by Dimir Delver. This came on the heels of an article I wrote for ChannelFireball that questioned the place of Gush in the format. Needless to say the article generated a ton of comments in various different places. Even though you get told to never read the comments, I read every one.

Before I go on I am going to say this: if you want people to keep creating Pauper content please treat them kindly. I have stopped posting in certain places simply because the legitimate criticism is buried behind personal insults. I'm sure some people reading this are going to think I'm being thin skinned.  That may be true, but look at where Pauper content creators are posting their work and where they've stopped.

Ultimate Masters

One of the most frequently repeated comments about Gush was that there was a recency bias. At the time of publishing there had been two Ultimate Masters events where Foil was legal and Dimir Delver had done exceptionally well in those two events. How could anyone make a point about the long term health of the format based upon such a small sample size?

I understand the allure of Gush. It is a supremely powerful card and one that is a ton of fun to cast. The above chart comes from Hour of Devastation season. Over that entire span Boros Monarch and Stompy had the most Top 8s and Izzet Delver, a high profile Gush deck, performed below expectations when it comes to Top 8s. But two of the Top 5 decks and three of the Top 10 were Gush decks that performed above their expected Top 8 ratio.

After Hour of Devastation comes Ixalan. These charts all represent decks that had at least 2% of the Top 32 metagame volume. Again, Boros Monarch did exceptionally well in the short season but again there were two Top 10 Gush decks. To be fair there were two other Gush decks that performed below expectation.

Iconic Masters is where things started to turn. The four main Gush decks at the time - Delver, Izzet Blitz, Izzet Delver, and Tribe Combo - all over performed their expectations. The thing to note here is that the traditional Gush predators - Boros Monarch, Elves, and Stompy - are at the bottom of the chart.

Rivals of Ixalan season had three Gush decks in the Top 5 with Stompy performing over expectation as well. Even though Tribe Combo faltered a bit it still won a Challenge. Gush decks took up one-third of all over-performing decks that season, by far their best share to that time.

25th Anniversary Masters saw Izzet Blitz fall off the top of the charts and had Izzet Delver perform relatively poorly. Still in this short season, Gush decks won two of five challenges and had half of all Top 8 appearances. Boros Monarch surged to the top while Stompy and Elves both languished.

 

Reports of Izzet Delver's demise were unfounded during Dominaria season. The deck performed absurdly well, earning four Top 8s above expectation. Delver also had a great run, as did Elves and Stompy. Tribe Combo and Izzet Blitz both performed about as well as the should have, conforming rather nicely to a T8 delver of 0.

Over the summer, Core Set 2019 gave Pauper its best performing non-Gush deck with Elves. An out-sized portion of Top 8 appearances combined with a win. Despite Elves in the top slot and Boros Monarch performing exceptionally well, Delver - mono-blue Delver - had the second best season on the back of three challenge victories. Izzet and Dimir Delver both had solid spans as well, with Tribe and Blitz bringing up the rear.

And that brings us to Guilds of Ravnica. Dimir Delver had the best overall season and the third best Top 8 delta in my tracking. Tribe Combo had a good run as well and the new Gush sniper - Boros Bully - coming in third. Izzet Faeries burst on to the scene as another Gush deck and cannibalized some share from its Delver running cousin. Gush killers Stompy, Elves, and Monarch took a hit.

Now we can look at all of these results and see a few things. Gush decks have consistently done well. Even when these decks have fewer Top 8 appearances than their Win+ indicate, they still make the Top 8 often. Decks often cited as being good against Delver builds cycle in and out of vogue, often struggling to combat the latest top Gush build. For the better part of two years, a Gush deck has been either number one or number two.

There are some who say that Augur of Bolas should be banned. I can see the arguments there. However at the end of the day Augur's power isn't inherent to itself but rather a byproduct of the other powerful blue cards it can find. The advent of Augur of Bolas helped to supercharge Gush decks and much of its power is tied to finding Gush (and Ponder/Preordain/Brainstorm). I've seen arguments against Foil, saying that Gush was fine until Foil came along, but I like to think the above charts show something different. 

I want to be wrong. I want a deck to rise up and prove that Gush can be allowed to stay. That a card so powerful as to be restricted in Vintage and banned in Legacy is just fine in Pauper. 

Almost two years in and I'm still waiting. 

December 16 Pauper Challenge Breakdown

Art by Donato Giancola; Source

December 16th gave us the second Pauper Challenge of the Ultimate Masters season. Stompy won the day in the extremely capable hands of _Dissonance_. The most notable thing about the victory was not that Stompy won but rather that the long time Stompy grinder had not moved away from Elephant Guide and towards Wild Mongrel. Over the past few weeks this change back to the Savage [D]astard himself has been a refreshing innovation in the green deck's composition. Mongrel has the ability to win games on its own and with the relative dearth of Chainer's Edict effects, Elephant Guide makes less sense. Still, being able to go toe-to-toe with Gurmag Angler has its advantages.

On that note, let's get to the rest of the results. Dimir Delver had a fantastic day with three different pilots making the Top 8. Nine of the 13 decks that made the Top 32 did so with winning records and the deck held the lone 6-0 at the end of the Swiss rounds. 

Numbers like this are reminiscent of the early stage domination of Izzet Delver.

I do think that Dimir Delver is a fantastic deck but it is likely not as good as these results seem to indicate. Rather the format is going to take time to adjust, specifically to Gurmag Angler in concert with Foil. Journey to Nowhere used to be the full stop answer to Angler. Now that Foil is in the picture, the opportunity to present Angler with multiple pieces of protection is far more likely and can render Journey less effective. 

What is the answer? I am not sure. In order to operate around countermagic it appears as if instants are best positioned to fight Dimir Delver. Cards like Vapor Snag are not permanent answers but they can help buy time. The issue is that no matter what you are spending to take down Angler you are likely trading down in mana thanks to Delve. Gurmag Angler might be the best it has ever been right now.

This chart is, in part, why I am not sounding the alarm on Dimir Delver just yet. While it has been far and away the most popular deck thus far in the short season, it is performing beneath its Top 8 expectation. I would not put too much stock in this until we get four Challenges in, especially given its volume, but we can see that Boros Tokens and monarch are both performing above expectation. Given the strength of Dimir Delver that should be noted. Let us also press 'f' for our currently fallen comrade in Izzet Delver. You had a fantastic 21 month run.

The elephant in the room for the next month will be Gush. January 21st signals the next update to the Banned list. While Foil is the new kid on the block, Gush is one reason why the pitch counter is so strong. Gush helps to mitigate the drawback while also being the backbone of the decks that want Foil most of all. Not to tease too much but I go into more detail in my upcoming article on ChannelFireball, so be sure to check this out.

Assorted musings:

• Mono Green Tokens looks to be the real deal. I think there's a lot to be done with that deck.
• Tethmos High Priest is clearly a powerful card that is still looking for the best shell.
• I am interested in Rakdos Monarch as a counter to Dimir Delver. Terminate is an attractive spell if it resolves. 

Tiana, Ship's Caretaker

I remember the impetus of my Tiana deck. When placing a preorder for Dominaria I decided to pick up a copy of the uncommon Legendary Angel Artificer in the hope that maybe it would spur me on to build a Red-White deck. The ability was interesting and narrow enough that it appealed to me.
When it comes to Commander there are few things I like more than sacrificing something for value. If you look at my decks there is always a way to turn that downside into a significant advantage. This makes it almost painfully easy to build base black decks. Branching into other colors can be a challenge. Yet I always manage to find a way to pay the ultimate price and turn that woe for my opponents. But in the Boros color combination I was never able to get it to click. Despite having a copy of Brion Stoutarm and Alesha, Who Smiles at Death in my box-o-generals, nothing ever did it for me.

One day I had some friends over to play Commander and I was in the process of building my Torgaar, Famine Incarnate deck. As I was going through my cards I started pulling weird auras that I felt might make Tiana fun. The more I pulled the more I realized something else I loved to do in Commander - force the table to read my cards and then beat them with utter jank. And so I started to gather the components for my Tiana deck.

Tiana is a value engine that turns dying Auras (and Equipment) into perpetual motion machines. The trick, as it were, is to get these elements to actually die. One reason I love enchantments in Commander is that they are a barely targeted permanent type. Artifacts draw more hate (and I decided to skimp on them for that reason) but getting Auras to hit the graveyard, well that's a challenge.

Capashen Standard does some serious work in that department, as do Flamespeaker's Will and Mortal Obstinacy. Soul Tithe is a nifty card that can tax an opponent's mana. Bound by Moonsilver also lets me bin Auras - like sat Sage's Reverie - in the hope of getting it back later. With Tiana on the board Choking Restraints becomes an incredibly expensive Swords to Plowshares but who cares because I'm beating you with draft chaff.

I decided to include a Sunforger package because I got blown out by it once. Seriously, no one ever expects throwing the hammer at someone and resolving a Settle the Wreckage. Boros Charm is in there for when I don't want my stuff to die while Oblation and Chaos Warp get the nod as ways to either save my own things or deal with problem permanents.

Tiana is one of my favorite decks to play at the moment. It's full of weird cards that don't look like much on their own. Together, however, they can create a rather impressive weapon. Or they can falter in an epic fashion. Because that's just how Auras are sometimes.

Commander

Tiana, Ship's Caretaker

Creatures

Auramancer

Boonweaver Giant

Duregar Hedge-Mage

Faith Healer

Heliod's Pilgrim

Ironclad Slayer

Kitsune Mystic

Knight of the White Orchid

Kor Spiritdancer

Mesa Enchantress

Nomad Mythmaker

Restoration Specialist

Silent Sentinel

Stonehewer Giant

Sun Titan

Umbra Mystic

Eidolon of Countless Battles

Danitha Capashen, Paragon

Sram, Senior Edificer

Valduk, Keeper of the Flame

Burnished Hart

Sorceries

Angelic Purge

Divine Reckoning

Open the Armory

Retether

Three Dreams

Winds of Rath

Instants

Boros Charm

Chaos Warp

Oblation

Path to Exile

Settle the Wreckage

Swords to Plowshares

Enchantments

Outpost Siege

Sigarda's Aid

Bound by Moonsilver

Capashen Standard

Chained to the Rocks

Choking Restraints

Darksteel Mutation

Daybreak Coronet

Ethereal Armor

Faith Unbroken

Faith's Fetters

Felidar Umbra

Flamespeaker's Will

Hobble

Hyena Umbra

Mortal Obstinacy

Sage's Reverie

Shielded by Faith

Soul Tithe

Squee's Embrace

Unquestioned Authority

Artifacts

Boros Signet

Crystal Chimes

Darksteel Plater

Helm of the Gods

Lightning Greaves

Skullclamp

Sunforger

Swiftfoot Boots

Sword of the Animist

Lands

17 Plains

9 Mountain

Battlefield Forge

Boros Garrison

Command Tower

Emeria, the Sky Ruin

Kor Haven

Sacred Foundry

Serra's Sanctum

Stone Quarry

Temple of Triumph

Wind-Scarred Crag