February 10 Pauper Challenge Breakdown

The other week I described the Pauper metagame as a game of ping-pong between Dimir Delver and Boros Monarch variants while the rest of the decks play musical chairs for third place. The February 10 Challenge did not do much to dispel that notion.

Just looking at these results, things look fine. The most popular Top 32 deck - Boros Monarch - didn't crack the Top 16 while Burn, Delver, and Dimir Delver all had the same Win+ score.

Win+ is a metric I use to help measure relative strength. It measures a deck's performance against the 32nd place list (or the final .500 or winning list in the case of a small challenge). Thus far, every Pauper Challenge has set the Win+ baseline, that is 0, at a X-3 record. One win above this is usually good enough for a Top 16 finish. 

In this particular challenge, five of the decks in the Top 8 went 6-1, meaning they had a Win+ of 2. In a discrete event this is important. However when looking at the format in aggregate those sorts of stats matter less. Instead we can look at how a deck is performing over a longer span of time. Burn has been very strong the past two weeks while Boros Monarch was also on the rise (until Sunday). Again, these are short term trends and help to inform ideas of metagame health.

In the micro, this Top 8 looks fairly diverse. Six distinct archetypes including two - Affinity and Orzhov Monarch - that cracked the elimination rounds for the first time this season. We see no Boros and no Tron, and last week's hot deck (Burn) continue to perform. How do things look when we talk about the four weeks of Ravnica Allegiance season?

Before diving too deep, there are a few things to know. The threshold for being included in this chart was a volume of 3 (2% of the total metagame comes out to roughly 2.56 appearances and for his purpose I round up). Both Izzet Control and Stompy made the Top 8 once but neither appeared enough times to make the cut. 

This chart is sorted by the last column - Delta Top 8. How the heck is this calculated? Remember what I said before about a Win+ of 1 being roughly equivalent to a Top 16? Some number of times a Win+ 1 deck will make the Top 8. Over the past two years it comes out to somewhere between twice a tournament and three times a tournament. Using this rough estimate (0.3125), you can estimate how many times a deck is expected to make Top 8 given it's cumulative Win+ score. On this metric, over four weeks Dimir Delver has three more Top 8s than it should all things being equal.

So what does this chart tell us? Only so much. I don't think anyone would dispute that Dimir Delver is one of the best decks this season and the same can be said for both Boros Monarch and Boros Bully. Yet Monarch, which just had a fairly down week, is outperforming its newer cousin. What gives?

Small sample size. That's the crux of the issue. These charts are great for identifying trends but less so for predictive. If they were stronger on the prognostication front, then we should have seen the rise of Tron weeks ago. Rather these charts all look back and try to make sense of what has happened. 

Well then, what happened at the end of last season? Dimir Delver and Boros Bully finished with 1.5 Top 8s over expectation. And the one before that? Dimir Delver had 4.13 Top 8s over expectation while Boros Bully had 1.63 (Tribe Combo finished between the two with 2.06). That takes us back to the start of October. That's a sustained success of two of the same macro archetypes for four months.

The Mythic Qualifier is three weeks away. Prepare for a format dominated by Dimir Delver and Boros decks. Have a plan for Elves, Tron, and Burn. Beyond that, pick something you know well. And maybe, just maybe, a week after someone makes it to the Mythic Championship on the back of Pauper, we will see something change. 

February 3 Pauper Challenge Breakdown

The headline of the February 3 Pauper Challenge is that Burn took three of the Top 8 spots and had seven Top 32 appearances, with six of those being 4-2 or better. In a world dominated by Boros Monarch and Dimir Delver that's a pretty good headline.

That's what we call burying the lede. This was a small challenge - that Top 32 represented more than half of the field. Considering that it was also the day of the Big Game for the National Football League and you have a recipe for an outlier if I ever saw one. But we can get to that later.

Burn did have a great day and there's something nice about seeing variety in the builds. Every deck in the Top 8 opted for Thermo-Alchemist and Ghitu Lavarunner; one ignored Skewer the Critics entirely; one shaved Needle Drop while another cut copies of Lava Spike. Burn is a great Level One deck right now as it attacks the format quickly in a way that gets around Dispel. More than that, it also has a low enough curve to play around Daze and with Seeker of the Way Boros decks on the decline, it can win before Prismatic Strands can do its business. Burn is also very easy to hate out. Much like Affinity in Pauper and Dredge in other formats, if enough people pack appropriate answers then the deck loses its punch.

There are some other interesting notes from Sunday. Pilgrim Prison - an enchantment based control deck finished in the Top 16. Hexproof had its best finish this season. Izzet Delver came back from the dead to make Top 8. And Boros Monarch continues to keep the crown away from Bully.

Boros Monarch and Boros Bully both use a similar shell but operate along slightly different axes. Bully wants to eke out advantage in the form of tokens, using the force multiplier of Rally the Peasants to shrink the window of opportunity for a comeback. Monarch on the other hand is built for the long game. In the past few weeks Monarch has proven to be the superior build, potentially due to its more robust creatures.

Let's look at the seasonal stats. The cutoff for 2% of total volume this week is around 2 appearances.

That's a stark difference between Monarch and Bully. In a similar number of appearances this season Monarch has five more Top 8s. Monarch also has 11 X-2 or better finishes to Bully's 6. Of course there's still Dimir Delver - six Top 8s and a whopping 2.25 Top 8s over expectation - sitting at the top of the heap.

Moving forward I'd prepare for Burn. Whether that means extra copies of Lone Missionary or Martyr of Sands you have to have a plan to protect your life total. Beyond that, more of the same: know how to handle Monarch and Dimir.

2019 is going to be a banner year for Pauper. I want to continue to be at the forefront of the metagame. If you like the work I do, please consider becoming a Patron. Thank you!

January 27 Pauper Challenge Breakdown

Conventional wisdom holds that Pauper has a triangular metagame. Gush decks beat Tron decks which beat Monarch decks which beat Gush decks. Considering the early surge of Dimir Delver in the wake of Foil, the recent rise of Boros flavored Monarch decks made sense. In light of the lack of bans many believed that Tron was due for a resurgence. On January 27th, we did not see that.

Instead what we saw was the same two decks rise to the top: Boros Monarch and Dimir Delver. These two decks out performed everything else in the challenge. Boros Monarch had the lone 7-0 and Dimir Delver won the whole thing (and place four players in the Top 8). 

What is most surprising though is the utter lack of Tron results. There was one deck that finished 5-2 or better and it made the Top 8. Yet this was supposed to be Tron's coming out party. What happened?

It could be that there was a lot of Tron in the event but that they were beat by Gush variants. It could be that Tron just isn't very good at the moment. 

My recent experience in the leagues has led me to believe that the recent Tron decks are not suited for the current metagame.

Tron is a powerful mana engine. Over the years it has been used to power out various top end threats like Fangren Marauder or Ulamog's Crusher. The biggest shift in Tron in the past few years was the addition of Pulse of Murasa. This let the deck shift from simply going over the top to being able to operate as a Mulldrifter fueled control deck. This build, in turn, served as the foundation for Tron decks post-Modern Masters 2017 and Dinrova Horror. Looping Ghostly Flicker through Horror became a legitimate win condition. However this required a lot of time to set up and with so few open slots - Tron requires far more than thye 12 spots for the lands themselves -the deck became almost all draw and delay tactics. That doesn't work well in a field full of interactive elements and Foil. If Tron wants to rise again it needs to figure out a way to not only win the game but also how to fight wars on the stack. That's hard to do.

Which is part of why we look to have a two pronged metagame for the foreseeable future - Gush and Monarch locked in a battle while Tron, Elves, and whatever else people feel like running vie for third place.

I could be wrong. Tron could come back with a vengeance in a week. The next month could be a golden age for Pauper with untold innovation. I would love nothing more than this. But I just don't see it happening.

2019 is going to be a banner year for Pauper. I want to continue to be at the forefront of the metagame. If you like the work I do, please consider becoming a Patron. Thank you!

January 20 Pauper Challenge Breakdown

Welcome to Ravnica Allegiance season! Meet the new boss, same as the old boss. Delver won the day in the hands of PauloCabral_br and despite not running Augur of Bolas, the pilot had no problem taking out the lone Stompy deck to make the Top 8 in the Quarterfinals. Then the mono-blue player dispatched two Boros Monarch decks on their way to victory. 

The Top 8 had some very interesting pieces of tech. First, that same Stompy player eschewed Elephant Guide in favor of Moldervine Cloak. Entropy263 had four copies of Fire//Ice in their Devious Cover-Up control deck. And the winner moved back to Spire Golem in Delver. This makes some amount of sense thanks to Foil. Foil is very good at protecting a singular threat and the Delver decks of old had Spire Golem act as that threat. In this new era it would follow that the old standard would return.

This first challenge showed that despite the recent surge of Boros Bully, Boros Monarch might still beat the red-white deck to beat. Three Top 8 finishes, and it would have had a 1:1 Win+ to Volume ratio if not for the 32nd place list, which went 3-4. 8 total Win+ points in 12 total appearances puts Boros decks ahead of the curve this season.

But don't sleep on Delver-Gush decks. Dimir Delver had a very strong showing as well - better than Bully in the same number of appearances. Delver, outside of the winner, faltered, with that lone Top 8 appearance being the only 5-2 or better finish. 

Last week Kendra Smith made the case to ban Gush, Ghostly Flicker, and all the Monarch cards. Despite the fact that nothing got banned today, Kendra played prognosticator rather well.

Fifteen of the Top 16 decks ran one of the cards Kendra called out. Her eye for the metagame is keen and just because Play Design didn't act doesn't mean her article was in the wrong. Give that woman some dap. You can check out my thoughts on the lack of bans here.

Moving forward, Gush and Monarch continue to have a target on their heads. If you are trying to attack the metagame I would look for another way to generate card advantage. You ideally want something that can keep pace with those two pillars in terms of card economy that does not sacrifice board position or force you into bad trades.

2019 is going to be a banner year for Pauper. I want to continue to be at the forefront of the metagame. If you like the work I do, please consider becoming a Patron. Thank you!

January 13 Pauper Challenge Breakdown

TL; DR: I'm starting a Patreon.

The January 13th Pauper Challenge is in the books and thus ends Ultimate Masters season with Ravnica Allegiance hitting the digital shelves this week. Mathonical won the day with Elves, defeating Burn, Boros Bully, and Boros Monarch in the Top 8. Three total copies of Spidersilk Armor had to have helped, as well as access to two copies of Hydroblast in the sideboard.

Boros decks did exceptionally well on the day, earning 9 total Win+ points across eight appearances. Base Dimir Gush decks were even money: five Win+ across five appearances. There were eight different archetypes in the Top 8 and 15 archetypes across the Top 32 if you split up Monarch and Bully Boros as well as Dimir and Esper Delver.

When you break the Top 32 down into the pillars, things shift just a bit. There were 12 Monarch decks, 9 Gush decks, and four Tron decks. 

The other two Top 8 decks were go-wide green decks with a huge but - they had sweeper insurance. The very best go-wide decks have tons of fragile creatures but cards like Spidersilk Armor and the triple lords of Slivers can make it harder for Electrickery to do the dirty work.

The season ends with a 2% threshold of 3.84 appearances - rounded up that means only decks with at least four Top 32 finishes will be featured. To the shock of everyone, Dimir Delver and Boros Bully are at the top of the chart, each performing 1.5 Top 8s above expectation.

So what does this mean in the grand scheme of things? Well, we can't ignore the fact that both Grixis Delver and Esper Delver got one Top 8 each, as well as two more Top 8s for Dimir Exhume. This means that base-blue/black Gush decks earned a total of 18 Top 8s. Meanwhile, combining Boros Bully and Monarch you get a total of 14 Top 8s.

Dimir Delver defined this six event season. The format has adjusted to handle threats both large and small - Angler and Insectile - and is catching on on how to handle the hordes of tokens spewed out by Bully. Incidentally, Tribe Combo had a fairly poor season all things considered. Given the abundance of powerful removal it makes sense that this deck has taken a hit.

And so ends another season dominated by Gush and Monarch. Going into Ravnica Allegiance I would be on one of these two decks. If not, I would consider running Hexproof. With Chainer's Edict removal all but absent form the top of the metagame, putting a ton of pants on a Bogle seems like a good idea.

With that out of the way, I want to talk about my new Patreon. Simply put, 2019 is going to be a banner year for Pauper and I want to continue to bring you content like these breakdowns. I also want to do so much more and give you deeper insights into my thought process and how I approach the metagame. Given the amount I want to do, I want to be sure there is an invested audience. So this Patreon is an experiment that I hope works out. These weekly breakdowns won't stop, but Patrons will get access to some additional forums and perks. If you have questions about the Patreon please feel free to reach out to me on Twitter. Regardless of whether or not you sign up, I hope you come along for the exciting ride that Pauper in 2019 is sure to be!

January 6 Pauper Challenge Breakdown

The January 6 Pauper Challenge showed that Boros Bully is the other big bad to Dimir Delver. The go-wide strategy earned was one Win+ point shy of the monster under the bed but did so in three fewer appearances. Journey to Nowhere is a solid removal spell and the ability to consistently chump block Gurmag Angler cannot be underestimated.

It is also nice to see the rise of Rakdos Monarch. Called it. Terminate does a good job of killing singular threats and the addition of Arc Lightning and Crypt Rats gives the deck some game against hordes of angry birds. 

Still the deck has some problems to overcome. The threats it can present are anemic - Chittering Rats is not as scary as it has been in the past - and without Gurmag Angler the deck has trouble closing out games. In many ways the deck is reminiscent of Dimir Alchemy in that it runs plenty of good cards but can struggle when trying to actually win the game. These decks may want to shift to a Mono Black Control shell, using red only for Terminate and Pyroblast, giving another avenue to win through Gray Merchant of Asphodel. Alternatively, they could incorporate Pestilence or maybe Sultai Scavenger. I'm saying, it has options.

Still, it may not matter. We are five challenges deep into Ultimate Masters seasons and the stratification of the metagame is only increasing. Out of 40 decks to make Top 8, 18 of those have been Gush decks (13 of those were Dimir Delver - 1 was Grixis Delver). The next most popular pillar is Monarch with 12 total Top 8s (one fewer than Dimir Delver). Tron decks, considered by many to be a blight upon the format, have amassed four total Top 8s - that's one more Top 8 than the Burning-Tree Emissary decks.

This problem isn't going to solve itself. Spoiler season for Standard legal sets are yielding less fruit and it isn't design's fault. Rather, as the card pool grows it becomes harder and harder for new cards to find purchase as they are almost always going to be a worse version of a card that already exists. Relying on downshifts isn't healthy either as what makes it to common is completely arbitrary and depends on the needs of the specific set.

The 2% threshold for making it to the leaderboard this week was three appearances. Boros Bully has edged out Dimir Delver for the lead, and these two are getting ready to lap the field.  

December 30th Pauper Challenge Breakdown

The final Challenge of 2018 showed exactly how much can change in a year. At the start of 2018. Pauper was dominated by Boros Monarch and Izzet Delver. And as the page turns to 2019, a new Delver variant and new Boros deck have turned the format on its ear.

I'm only being slightly sarcastic. While there has been some serious innovation in the last 365 days, the best two decks at the moment and variants of decks that have been successful for years. This is the way of non-rotating formats. Inertia is real and it takes more than one or two new cards to upset the order of things. However as we dig deeper into these results a few things become clear. First, Dimir Delver is perceived to be the threat of the format. Despite some saying that the deck is overrated, decks did adjust to the threat. We saw more copies of Journey to Nowhere, maindeck copies of Relic of Progenitus, and an increase in the prevalence of Pyroblast.

No deck is unbeatable, especially when hate is everywhere. But despite all this there were three copies of Dimir Delver in the Top 8. Another copy should have made it over Dinrova Tron, except that player apparently dropped from the event between the final round of Swiss and the Quarterfinals.

How popular was Pyroblast? The card made appearances in 15 sideboards. In two of those instances, there were maindeck copies as well. All told there were ten decks with access to four Pyroblasts after Game One and another four with access to three. It isn't uncommon for sideboard bullets to make their ways into maindecks in unhealthy metagames to deal with problematic cards - one only needs to look at Vintage and Legacy to see some examples. 

This is certainly exploitable. You can forgo stack control entirely and dodge both Pyroblast and Hydroblast. Doing so puts you at a disadvantage however - every deck in the Top 8 had access to some form of stack control. 

When a format locks you in to playing either red or blue, there may be something wrong with the format.

The threshold for 2% this week rounds up to three appearances. Despite not making a Top 32 last week Stompy holds on to the third spit. Still, Dimir Delver and Boros Bully are half a Top 8 clear of the remaining top decks. As more attention gets paid to Pauper, especially with a slot in the Magic Online Championship on the line, the chances of this remaining the status quo diminishes.

Pauper is at a crossroads. It can either remain a small community happy to exist in its corner, or it can flourish beyond our borders. 

I think you all know which side I fall on.